Another Sunday, another election – or three.
The EU faces a political stress test this weekend as voters in Poland, Romania, and Portugal head to the polls in what is being dubbed the EU’s ‘Super Sunday’.
Few expect possible gains by the far right to trigger an immediate political earthquake in the European Council, where EU leaders set the bloc’s political direction. Yet the ballots will offer a snapshot of how far populist forces can push into Europe’s political mainstream.
Poland: A referendum on Europe
Sunday’s first round of the presidential election follows a decade of conservative rule under President Andrzej Duda and marks a decisive moment for centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda - hamstrung until now by Duda’s veto power.
Leading the polls with around 32% is Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw from Tusk’s Civic Coalition, who champions a pro-EU agenda.
“Trzaskowski and Tusk will realign Poland with the EU,” said Piotr Tosiek, associate professor at the University of Warsaw.
However, Tosiek warned that a Trzaskowski victory could also push the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) and far-right Confederation parties closer together, potentially setting up a joint win in the 2027 parliamentary elections.
Trzaskowski’s main rival, PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki, has seen his campaign stumble over a property scandal and his support dropped to 22% in May.
Meanwhile, far-right leader Sławomir Mentzen, in favor of liberalizing gun laws and “mild corporal punishment” for children, has also drawn big crowds and gained popularity among young people. While he is unlikely to reach the second round, his voters could prove decisive there, particularly if they rally behind Nawrocki to block a liberal presidency.
A Nawrocki victory would cement the current political deadlock, Tosiek warned, allowing the presidency to continue obstructing the government’s attempts to reform the rule of law.
Romania: Here we go again
Romania’s Super Sunday presidential run-off comes amid a repeat of the annulled 2024 election, which was scrapped over alleged Russian interference for far-right candidate Călin Georgescu.
In the first round at the beginning of May, ultranationalist George Simion led with 40.96% and he will now face centrist Nicușor Dan, who scored 20.99%.
Simion’s rapid rise has rattled pro-European circles. His nationalist platform, openly critical of Brussels and firmly opposed to continued aid for Ukraine, threatens to pull Romania into the EU’s growing populist camp.
Yet how far an anti-EU agenda could actually go under a Simion presidency is less clear. According to Radu Magdin, CEO of EU affairs at Smartlink Communications, the challenge is as much about optics as it is about policy.
Simion will have to perform “a fine strategic dance, appearing strong for the home audience, while being constructive, not absurd, in Brussels,” Magdin said.
Portugal: Third time lucky
Finally, Portugal heads to the polls Sunday for its third election in three years.
The latest vote was triggered by the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s minority government, brought down by a conflict-of-interest scandal that deepened public distrust in mainstream parties and led to the rise of far-right Chega.
Montenegro’s center-right AD leads with 32% – well short of the 42% majority threshold. The Socialists follow with 27% while Chega has climbed to a record 19%, fueling speculation about its kingmaker potential.
For now, Montenegro is holding the line against formal cooperation with the far right. He has ruled out an alliance with Chega and signaled his intention to govern as he did after the March 2024 election – forming a minority government and seeking support on a case-by-case basis to pass legislation.
Portugal’s political system still holds a functioning cordon sanitaire to isolate the far right, according to Marina Costa Lobo, director of the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon, who added that it will take “more than Chega” to make the next government fall.
Business as usual in the Council
While the far right may make significant advances in Sunday’s elections, the balance of power in the European Council is likely to remain stable.
In Bucharest, many, including analyst Magdin, expect the ultranationalist Simion to moderate his anti-EU rhetoric if in power, similar to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
As a vulnerable country with serious fiscal deficits, Magdin said Romania cannot afford to pick fights with Brussels and, if elected, Simion must “negotiate smartly, not forcefully.”
Still, Magdin warned that Simion’s open admiration for US President Donald Trump could lead him to align with US interests in “weakening the European project.”
In Poland, although the conservative candidate Nawrocki is ideologically closer to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, the country’s pro-European stance will still prevail in the Council. Foreign policy is constitutionally the government’s responsibility, not the president’s.
And expect Portugal to remain “firmly anchored” in the pro-EU mainstream too, Costa Lobo said. The center-right and Socialists are likely to find common ground at the EU level, particularly on defense and security, she argued, even as Chega opposes deeper EU Defence ties in favor of national sovereignty.
See the original of this article by Charles Szumski for Euractiv here.