Russia is likely to expand its already aggressive list of territorial demands if Ukraine agrees to the Kremlin’s preconditions for a ceasefire, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to a new assessment by the Washington-based think tank, Moscow is positioning itself to extract further concessions from Kyiv during eventual war termination negotiations – far beyond what it currently occupies or has illegally annexed.
“Russian officials have called for Ukraine to cede all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts – even the areas that Russian forces do not currently occupy – before Russia can agree to a ceasefire,” the ISW report stated.
However, territorial issues are typically negotiated as part of broader peace agreements – not ceasefires. ISW analysts say Russia’s move may be a deliberate strategy to use ceasefire talks as a platform to set even more extreme terms down the line.
During May 16 talks in Istanbul, Russian negotiators reportedly threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy – two regions that Russia has neither formally claimed nor annexed. This, the ISW says, is a warning sign.
“This tactic suggests that Russia will make additional, more extreme territorial demands during war termination talks should Ukraine agree to Russia’s ceasefire preconditions,” the think tank added.
The ISW’s analysis underscores growing Western concerns that Moscow is not negotiating in good faith, but rather seeking a temporary pause to regroup militarily while pressing for increased concessions through coercive diplomacy.
Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated that any deal requiring the surrender of territory would be unacceptable, and President Volodymyr Zelensky held firm that Ukraine will not “withdraw our troops from our own territory.”
Following a May 19 phone call between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there is “no concrete timeframe” for preparing a peace memorandum with Ukraine. “There are no deadlines, nor can there be,” Peskov told Russian media. “Everyone wants to do this as quickly as possible, but the devil is in the details.”
He added that both sides would exchange draft proposals before beginning “complex negotiations to produce a unified text.”
Despite confirming that contact with Ukraine has resumed, Peskov said no decision has been made on the format or location of future talks. He again cited the need to “eliminate the root causes of the conflict” – language often used by Moscow to justify its aggression.
Putin earlier stated Russia was ready to propose a memorandum outlining “key positions” for a future peace deal.
Separately, Zelensky said Ukraine is considering hosting high-level talks involving the US, UK, EU, and Russia, possibly in Turkey, the Vatican, or Switzerland: “We want to organize this at a high level… we are considering bringing all the teams together.”