ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have sustained over one million casualties since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of which occurred since January 2024.
  • Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains.
  • Russian forces recently advanced across the western Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Kurakhove as part of a multi-pronged effort to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces are likely attempting to level the frontlines in the Novopavlivka and Kurakhove directions to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct successful long-range strikes that target Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).
  • Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners of war (POWs) again on June 12, in accordance with agreements the parties previously reached during talks in Istanbul on June 2.
  • Southeastern European countries reiterated their support for Ukraine on June 11, including Serbia signaling its willingness to improve bilateral relations with Ukraine.
  • Germany pledged to supply Ukraine with additional financial and materiel support, including air defense systems.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Siversk and Kurakhove.

Authors: Olivia Gibson, Anna Harvey, Christina Harward, and George Barros with William Runkel and Nate Trotter.

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