On Sunday, Baku cancelled all Russian cultural events in Azerbaijan – both official and private ones.
The cancellation came after a police raid on Friday in Russia’s Yekaterinburg killed two Azeris – identified as Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, both around 60 years old – and detained many others over a cold murder case in 2002.
The incident prompted Baku’s Ministry of Culture to issue a statement on X on Sunday, decrying it as “targeted and extrajudicial killings and acts of violence committed by Russian law enforcement agencies against Azerbaijanis.”
The statement also describes it as “systematic.”
Baku’s Foreign Ministry also condemned the incident via a statement and, according to state media, cancelled the upcoming trip of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, saying it “does not consider it appropriate under the current circumstances.”
But the diplomatic fallout is only part of the broader, complex relationship between Baku and Moscow – a friendship not without its issues that has been deteriorating in recent months.
Friends with issues
In short, Azerbaijan and Russia remain allies for the most part despite occasional hiccups – but a string of incidents have strained their ties over the past year.
Both are rich in fossil fuels, making them allies and competitors at the same time – as members of OPEC+, the two coordinate to maintain oil production levels, but Baku has also increasingly been taking over Russia’s overseas markets due to the sanctions placed on Moscow after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
However, Azerbaijan has also been a hotspot for Moscow to evade sanctions by re-routing banned merchandise to Russia. In May, the UK also sanctioned an Azerbaijan state-owned tanker for shipping Russian oil.
Downed civilian jet
But that friendship has been souring, with the diplomatic fallout over the weekend following another major spat between Baku and Moscow.
In late December 2024, a jet mainly carrying Azeri passengers was downed soon after departing Grozny, the capital of Russia’s Chechen Republic. Investigations later suggested that it was downed by Russian air defense.
Baku strongly criticized the incident and demanded that Moscow apologize and claim responsibility. Russian leader Vladimir Putin eventually apologized without accepting responsibility.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev later voiced his dissatisfaction and demanded “complete transparency and decent behavior” from Moscow.
Deteriorating ties
Official statements dispersed via Baku’s state media might shed light on the deteriorating ties between Baku and Moscow – especially considering how Putin was just warmly welcomed into Baku in August 2024.
In May 2025, Azerbaijan’s state media reported that a lawmaker was barred from a flight to Russia’s Astrakhan region, despite having received an invitation to attend an event from the region’s deputy governor.
“We view this decision of the Russian side to be an unfriendly step and expect a substantiated explanation from Russia regarding the matter,” Baku’s foreign ministry spokesperson said at the time.
Then, earlier this month, Baku lashed out at Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky – also the head of the Russian negotiations in the Istanbul talks with Kyiv – for his comments on Baku’s claims over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“The remarks made by Vladimir Medinsky, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation, during an interview with Russia Today on June 9, when he distorted facts regarding the former Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and presented the Karabakh region as a disputed territory, are both regrettable and surprising,” Baku’s foreign ministry spokesperson said.
Notably, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict marked a turning point in Baku-Moscow relations, upending the existing power dynamics in the Caucasus region that had been established for over two decades.
The Karabakh turning point
Azerbaijan had been fighting with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region for two decades – until Baku’s victory in September 2023.
Before that, Armenia, with Russian backing, had managed to maintain a grip on the region, which soured Baku’s relations with Moscow.
However, Baku’s September 2023 victory – in part due to the inaction of Russian peacekeepers – has reversed that dynamic. Armenia severed ties with Moscow and withdrew from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in June 2024.
Following the loss of Karabakh, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also accused two CSTO members of actively aiding Azerbaijan in its offensive. One has been identified as Moscow’s ally Belarus, but another remains unclear.
Baku and Moscow’s improving ties after Karabakh eventually led to Putin’s high-profile visit to Baku, where he and Aliyev discussed bilateral relations and “international and regional problems.”
That is until the plane incident in December – and now the killing of two Azeris in Yekaterinburg – where the signals dispersed via Baku’s state media suggest that Moscow might lose another ally in the Caucasus after Armenia.