Russian President Vladimir Putin has no desire to negotiate a ceasefire, much less a peace deal. He believes Ukraine is Russia. On June 20, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, he said just that: “I have said many times that I consider the Russian and Ukrainian peoples to be one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.” He went on to add: “We have an old rule. Wherever a Russian soldier sets foot is ours.”
In April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went on the record stating that “Russia will accept nothing less than total victory over Ukraine.”
Then Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev boasted: “The Russian army is pushing forward and will continue to advance… Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up, and those who must be eliminated will be.”
The Russian end state is clear, but the West seems determined to ignore it. The only negotiation Russia is open to is stopping Ukraine’s ability to resist – essentially establishing terms for surrender. Their latest condition to come to the negotiation table included a new provision for the West to stop training Ukrainian soldiers. They are simply setting conditions for their eventual final push.
Putin remains the ‘root cause’ for the war in Ukraine, and he is determined to win, whatever the cost.
On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Putin, urging the Russian President to accept a ceasefire with Ukraine. In response, Putin told Macron that the Ukrainian conflict was “a direct consequence of the policy of Western states,” and that “Western states had for many years ignored Russia’s security interests.” He then repeated the tired Russian narrative that any peace deal should be “comprehensive and long-term, provide for the elimination of the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis and be based on new territorial realities.”
So nothing – at least from a Russian perspective – has changed. Putin remains the “root cause” for the war in Ukraine, and he is determined to win, whatever the cost. Today that would be 1,022,090 casualties – not to mention the destruction of forward deployed military headquarters, defense industry facilities, ammunition storage facilities, air bases, seaports, rail lines, and their oil/gas infrastructure.
On Wednesday, in a decision driven by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Coby, the Pentagon announced it halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that “US weapons stockpiles have fallen too low.” The munitions included Patriot Advanced Capability-Three, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles.
The US is abandoning Ukraine and Europe in their greatest need.
Ukraine has been fighting this war now for three and a half years. If stockpiles have fallen too low, it is because politicians have not set conditions to replenish them. As the dictum goes: “In war, amateurs talk strategy, but professionals talk logistics.” At the moment, the Pentagon provides neither, only inadequate excuses.
In essence – the US is abandoning Ukraine and Europe in their greatest need, just as NATO countries committed to spending a minimum of 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense by 2035 last week at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, as demanded by President Donald Trump.
The announcement was welcome news in Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “The fewer the number of weapons that are delivered to Ukraine, the closer the end of the special military operation.” From the Kremlin’s perspective, a step toward limiting Ukraine’s ability to continue their resistance.
And by “closer the end of the special military operation,” he is not referring to a ceasefire or peace deal; rather, the total capitulation of Ukraine to Russia. The White House, knowingly or not, just gave Russia the green light to make a final concerted push to close the deal.
But Ukraine and Europe get a vote. European countries are stepping up – Germany in particular. Ukraine now has operational reach. Russian forces in Ukraine and Russia are within range – of drones, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles, the Korshun-2, and French AASAM “Hammer” guided bombs delivered by American F-16 fighter jets, and more.
In June, Russia launched over 5,438 drones toward Ukrainian cities. Upwards of 50,000 Russian soldiers are believed to be assembled in the Sumy region, prepared to launch another offensive, and 30,000 North Korean soldiers are preparing to deploy to Russia.
Now is not the time to halt weapons shipments to Ukraine; rather, it is time to double them. Then turn to the defense industry to replenish the stockpiles.
Copyright 2025. Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.