Ukraine’s real GDP rose by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year, the State Statistics Service reported.
Compared to the last quarter of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP rose by 0.7%, according to Ukraine’s official statistics.
The State Statistics Service released its estimates following similar projections by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
The growth of 0.9% compared to the first quarter of last year falls almost in the middle ground between the NBU’s lower, conservative estimate and the more optimistic figure from the IER.
The IER had previously estimated quarterly growth at 1.1%, but revised the figure to 0.8% following updated production data from the State Statistics Service.
At the same time, Ukraine’s central bank offered a pessimistic estimate, projecting GDP growth at just 0.5% for the first quarter of 2025. Previously, the NBU decreased the GDP forecast for 2025 to 3.1%.
The heightened pessimism is caused in part by the ongoing destruction of gas infrastructure from Russia’s strikes at the beginning of 2025, leading to Ukraine’s increased reliance on imported gas for the next heating season.
A workforce deficit, caused by internal migration and relocation of five million Ukrainian refugees abroad, has also constrained growth.
In 2024, Ukraine’s economy grew by 3.5%, according to IMF data. Ukraine’s growth momentum is decelerating because of the ongoing Russian invasion.