The Kremlin has described Wednesday’s Istanbul talks as “difficult” before the talks commence, leaving little faith in any breakthroughs in the third meeting of its kind this year.
Kyiv and Moscow have also listed drastically different priorities for the talks, with the return of prisoners of war (POWs) being the only mutual ground.
On Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv’s goals for the talks are securing the POWs, abducted children, and an in-person meeting between him and Russian leader Vladimir Putin – no ceasefire mentioned.
The Kremlin, on the other hand, said the goals are the “draft memoranda” for a ceasefire and POW exchanges.
“The talks will begin in the evening. The parties are expected to focus primarily on finalizing draft memoranda and discussing exchanges,” a source told Russian state media TASS.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also said a meeting with Putin would not be possible without securing what it called a “memorandum” towards a ceasefire.
“All the work necessary to finalize these memorandums is part of preparing for the meeting… Without completing this difficult groundwork, setting specific dates for a summit makes little sense,” Peskov said, as referenced by TASS.
Peskov also voiced little optimism for the talks by calling it “very difficult” before they commenced.
“No one expects an easy road… It will be very difficult,” Peskov told reporters when asked about his expectations for the talks, according to AFP.
Ceasefire no longer mentioned
Ceasefire, which topped the agenda during the previous Istanbul talks, has gradually slipped out of Kyiv’s expectations as Moscow has continued to express its maximalist positions.
The two sides last met on June 2 in Istanbul, exchanging draft ideas of what a peace deal could look like.
Before the June talks, Kyiv submitted a draft memorandum outlining its peace conditions.
Kyiv’s proposals
Kyiv’s memorandum calls for a full ceasefire on land, air, and sea for at least 30 days, the exchange of all prisoners under the “all for all” principle, the return of deported children, the release of civilian hostages, and international guarantees of Ukrainian territorial integrity.
It also calls for international monitoring mechanisms, legal recognition of Ukraine’s borders, compensation for war damage, and a future Zelensky-Putin meeting to finalize any deal.
Moscow’s proposals
Moscow presented its memorandum to Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul following the second round of negotiations in June.
The memorandum demands that Russia will only negotiate a ceasefire if Ukraine fully withdraws from the four partly Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, ceding territory with no Kremlin presence.
The demands also include: Ukrainian neutrality, bans on military alliances or coalition (i.e., NATO), limits on the size of Ukraine’s military and the quantity and types of weapons it holds, “full guarantees of the rights, freedoms, and interests” of Russian speakers in Ukraine, bans on “Nazism and neo-Nazism” and the total lifting of sanctions on Russia including free transit of Russian gas pipelines through Ukraine, according to Russian state media.
Russia has falsely accused Ukraine of “Nazism,” a claim rebuked by Ukraine’s chief Rabbi, Moshe Asman, in a recent interview with Kyiv Post.
The terms also equate to Moscow’s war goals – a fact tacitly acknowledged by Peskov when he renewed his calls for Kyiv to return to the Istanbul talks in June.
“Moscow expects that a date for a new round of negotiations with Kyiv will be set this week… Achieving the goals outlined by Putin at the beginning of the [special military operation] SVO is a priority for Russia,” according to Russian state media RIA Novosti at the time, citing Peskov’s comments and referring to the invasion using the Kremlin-approved glossary.
In short, unless Moscow backed down from its demands outlined in the last memorandum, there is little faith for any breakthroughs towards a ceasefire – or a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, for that matter.