Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, has warned that citizens “must be ready” for an increased threat from Russia over the next two years but pledged his government would work to “stabilize” the country’s security situation.
Tusk said Poland and the European continent as a whole can expect “various developments” over the next two years, after a top NATO official warned that both Russia and China may be gearing up for conflict in 2027.
The prime minister was speaking just hours after meeting with NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Alexus S. Grynkewich, in Warsaw on Friday.
“I expected precise information [from Grynkewich] and I received it, meaning that according to all NATO and U.S. assessments, Russia and China will be ready for a global confrontation as soon as 2027, in two years’ time,” Tusk said on a visit to the central city of Pabianice on Saturday.
“Poland and Europe, but Poland first of all, must be ready for various developments over the next two years.”
Defense spending boost
European countries, largely led by Poland and other nations on NATO’s eastern flank, have answered the United States’ call for the continent to take more responsibility for its own security by promising to significantly increase defense spending.
Warsaw has also taken steps to prepare its population for a potential large-scale conflict, with ventures such as its much-publicized expansion of military training and more modest plans to produce a guide to help citizens survive war.
But governments are not just worried about the risk of conventional war breaking out.
Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland and its neighbors have been targets of Russian hybrid warfare—incidents such as sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns that, although often serious, fall short of outright war.
Hybrid war is ‘preparation,’ says Tusk
Perhaps the most brazen example is the crisis on the EU’s eastern border with Russia and its ally Belarus. Moscow and Minsk stand accused of deliberately fomenting a crisis by funneling migrants from Africa and Asia over land frontiers with Poland and the Baltic states.
This has led Poland to drastically reinforce its border with Belarus and, more recently, reintroduce checks on the border with Lithuania.
Speaking in Pabianice, Tusk said the situation on Poland’s eastern border was proof that Russia is “preparing for 2027” when a global conflict could erupt.
He continued: “We live in such a historic moment in which seriousness, maximum responsibility for Poland, for what is happening in and around the country, is an absolutely indisputable requirement.
“We will use two years that are ahead of us… to the maximum to stabilize the situation in Poland.”
Top NATO commander visits Warsaw
Grynkewich, who has repeatedly warned that 2027 could be a year of crisis and conflict with Russia and China, came to Warsaw on Friday, where he met Tusk and other key government figures.
He was welcomed by Defense Minister Władyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, who said that Poland and the U.S.—the NATO commander’s home country—were locked in a “firm, tested and reliable” alliance.
“Thank you for a good and focused conversation. We need to use every opportunity for joint allied operations and remember that every country must build its own deterrence and defense capabilities,” Kosiniak-Kamysz wrote on X after meeting Grynkewich.
After his own discussions with the commander on Friday, Tusk said he had also spoken during the day to the outgoing and new heads of MI6, the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, and insisted the officials were all focused on preparing for the future.
“Poland must be ready, Poland must be well prepared, the Polish armed forces must be well equipped, and the situation in Poland must be stable to let us be ready for any scenario,” he said.