The European Union and Ukraine are facing a bizarre conundrum: How to handle a narcissistic and lawless senile toddler who has become almighty president of the United States.
Traditionally, the United States has stood for – democracy, freedom, the rule of law and free markets – but Mr. Trump’s preferences are personal power, family income, and maximum public attention. How shall the democratic world manage such a character?
The big takeaway is: Never trust the United States as long as Trump is president! Remember that he has claimed that “our allies are worse than our enemies.” In the short term, Trump has to be managed. In the longer term, all need to learn how to live without the previously benevolent United States. The EU needs to provide Ukraine with sufficient financing, and together Europe and Ukraine must provide Ukraine with the necessary arms.
So far, four seemingly approaches to Trump appears to have been successful. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has opted for full Trumpism, offering his severe prisons at an attractive price. Viktor Orban has turned Hungary into the most corrupt country in the EU, according to Transparency International, and the least free, according to Reporters without Border, so Trump loves Orban. Somewhat less intuitive, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the latest NATO summit sucked up to Trump and flattered him no end as he really desires.
By contrast, China has stood up to Trump and posed all kinds of conditions from Taiwan to access to semiconductors. Otherwise, the United States will not get access to rare metals and magnets. That is a language Trump understands. He seems to be eating out of Xi Jinping’s hands, humiliating himself to get a meeting. Robert Armstrong at the Financial Times has coined the phrase TACO, “Trump always chickens out.” Yes, if you have something Trump really wants.
Ukraine has actually a very strong position in relation to the US. Trade between the two countries is so tiny that it barely matters, and the US had a surplus. In 2024, U.S. goods exports to Ukraine were $1.7 billion, and U.S. goods imports from Ukraine totaled $1.2 billion. The Ukrainian government can almost ignore US trade policy, although the biggest steel and steel pipes companies have important interests.
Instead, Ukraine is vital for the US arms producers. If you are not on the Ukrainian front, you are obsolete. In 2024, US arms exports were no less than $319 billion, and much of this was indirectly connected with Ukraine. Various countries bought new arms from the United States and passed on what they had in storage to Ukraine.
The five big US arms producers (Lockheed Martin, RSX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, and Boeing) are now subject to serious criticism for being too bureaucratic, too expensive and not very innovative. In the US, the new tech companies Palantir and Anduril attack them. They all need to be on the battlefield in Ukraine to catch up with the latest Ukrainian and Russian innovations. Therefore, Trump’s “pause” in US arms sales to Ukraine is devastating to them all. They will become technologically backward and not very competitive in the future.
Therefore, Ukraine and the EU have a very strong card. Last year, Ukraine produced 1.5 million drones for $10 billion. This year it has a capacity to produce 4.5 million drones for $35 billion. The US arms producers want to be there, but Ukraine and the EU should not allow them unless they pay for themselves (with a few exceptions such as Patriot missiles and javelins, both produced by Raytheon, now RSX). The EU and Ukraine should promote their own arms production, and Ukraine should demand the production of its arms in Ukraine. It has the skills, entrepreneurship and a great cost advantage. Its old Soviet military-industrial complex can easily be scaled up, but European management and capital would be helpful. So far, Rheinmetal appears to stand out.
The main outcome of the NATO summit was that Europe decided to pursue large-scale rearmament. Europe needs to return to defense expenditures of 3.5% of GDP and reactivate its semi-dormant arms industry, while bringing in innovations from Ukrainian startups. The ultimate goal is that Europe should be able to defend itself against Russia without the United States but with Ukraine.
Trump has all along clarified that he prefers Putin and Russia over Ukraine. Tellingly, Trump called Putin a “genius” when he launched his full-scale attack on Ukraine. Under Trump, the US voted twice in the UN General Assembly with Russia and a dozen of other rogue states, claiming that Russia was not an aggressor. Trump has blocked all financial and military aid to Ukraine and he personally ambushed President Zelensky in the White House on February 28. Nor has he introduced any new sanctions on Russia or even tariffs. For long, he stopped sales of US military equipment to Ukraine. His idea of ceasefire was that Ukraine would give up large territories to Russia and never be allowed to join NATO. The US no longer calls for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, only sovereignty.
Fortunately, Trump’s love for Putin is not shared by the American people. A solid majority in both parties support Ukraine and want more US military aid to Ukraine. No less than 85 senators have co-sponsored a draft law on secondary sanctions on Russia. Clearly, Trump dislikes that, so he fends off with some negative statements on Russia, but he might be forced to make real concessions to the strong US majority in favor of Ukraine.
Do not harbor any illusions about Trump! He does prefer Putin and belongs to the 19th century just like Putin. Learn to manage without the US! Europe needs to finance Ukraine. It should finally seize the $200 billion of Russian Central Bank funds frozen in Belgium and give them to Ukraine! Together Europe and Ukraine can produce sufficient arms so that Ukraine can defeat Russia.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.