- Russian Ground Forces (RGF) highly likely seized approximately 500-550 sq km of Ukrainian territory in July 2025. RGF seized a similar amount of Ukrainian territory in June 2025, following month on month increases from March 2025. The RGF continued to make tactical advances in Donetsk oblast, primarily to the north-east and south-west of Pokrovsk. RGF are continuing attempts to envelop the town and apply pressure to the remaining logistical routes to the town. Russian forces have now occupiednearly all of Donetsk oblast territory south from Pokrovsk.
- In the last two weeks RGF have not made any observable gains in the Ukrainian oblast of Sumy, which borders the Russian oblasts of Kursk and Belgorod. Continued losses and Ukrainian counterattacks have likely frustrated Russian intent to establish a buffer zone in the Sumy region. Reporting indicates elements of Russia’s 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment in Sumy are refusing to follow orders, with previous reporting indicating complaintsagainst commanders ordering casualty-heavy infantry assaults.There is limited indication of further RGF reinforcements.
- It is highly likely that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited operations in the border region of Russia’s Kursk oblast, over a yearafter launching the initial incursion.