WASHINGTON DC – As US President Donald Trump prepares for high-stakes talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday, a leading expert on abducted Ukrainian children is sounding the alarm, warning that any ceasefire deal failing to prioritize their return could be “disastrous.”
Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) at the Yale School of Public Health, has been at the forefront of tracking thousands of Ukrainian children forcibly taken by Russia since the full-scale invasion.
His lab’s meticulous work, utilizing open-source intelligence, satellite imagery, and analysis of Russian adoption databases, has been crucial in exposing Russia’s systematic program of coerced adoption and re-education. This extensive documentation has directly contributed to the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing arrest warrants for Putin and his children’s rights commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, on charges of war crimes.
In an exclusive interview with the Kyiv Post on Monday, Raymond expressed grave concerns about the upcoming summit. “If there is a deal that does not involve the return of Ukraine’s children in full as a prerequisite,” Raymond stated, “it means that the United States will have been part of basically undermining the special protected status of children enshrined in the Geneva Convention for nearly 80 years.”
A dangerous precedent for future wars
Raymond warned that such an outcome would set a perilous global precedent. “Children can be treated as if they were POWs or spies,” he explained. “If the children are put on the table, it will... incentivize the hostage taking of children as a senior part of the wars of the future.” This would effectively normalize a practice that violates fundamental international humanitarian law.
The Yale HRL’s previous research has revealed Russia’s systematic program, identifying at least 19,546 documented cases of Ukrainian children deported to Russia. Raymond’s team has painstakingly traced thousands of these missing children, reporting that they are tracking approximately 35,000 children potentially located within Russia and occupied territories, spread across over 100 locations, including re-education camps, foster, and adoption settings from the Black Sea to the Pacific coast in Magadan.
These children are often subjected to “Russification” efforts, which include being placed in unfamiliar and hostile environments, having their Ukrainian cultural identities erased by changing their names and issuing Russian citizenship, and, in some disturbing instances, being exposed to military training and anti-Ukraine indoctrination.
Only a small fraction, around 1,347, have been returned to Ukraine so far, a rate at which Raymond estimates it would take half a century to bring all of them back.
White House commitment questioned amid funding cuts
Despite earlier impressions that President Trump “cared about children,” Raymond sees no meaningful policy process or coordination within the White House on this critical issue.”
“They’ve withheld $8 million from us and from the State Department... that would have supported us and others to continue the track,” Raymond recalled. This cut in funding has been a significant blow, hindering the lab’s ability to continue its vital work, including access to satellite imagery and maintaining its vast archive of data.
There has been a total ridding of the personnel that would run in any diplomatic, any intelligence or any accountability operation related to this issue,” he added, citing a lack of dispatch of FBI, ICE, and DHS personnel to support Ukrainian efforts.
This apparent lack of direct support from the administration stands in stark contrast to the widespread bipartisan backing for the children’s issue in both the US Senate and House of Representatives. Republican senators like Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Roger Wicker (R-MS), Joni Ernst (R-IA), and others have pushed for resolutions demanding the return of children as a condition for successful peace talks, though these efforts have reportedly lost momentum.
Raymond noted that while there’s broad bipartisan support on the children’s issue in Congress, “the one person in the Republican Party who hasn’t shown any real commitment to the kids is the president himself.”
A clear path forward: Red Cross registration
When asked what he would suggest President Trump do before Friday’s talks, Raymond offered a direct and actionable proposal: “Aim low.” By this, he means focusing on a concrete, achievable humanitarian step that would reinforce international norms rather than undermine them.
“Get Vladimir Putin to agree to allow the Red Cross to register the kids as an outside, independent validator of how many kids there are and where they’re located,” Raymond urged.
He emphasized that this single action would “actually be advancing peace” and “strengthening through the multilateral institutions the United States helped inspire and evolve, particularly after the Second World War.”
Raymond believes that if Trump, “the master of the deal,” truly wants to make progress, he should drive a hard bargain. “We’re not going to come back to the table till you give us all the names of the kids, [give them] to the Red Cross and they verify,” he stated, highlighting the urgency and verifiability of this demand.
However, Raymond acknowledges the grim reality that this crucial step might not occur. “What is at risk of occurring is the children being used as poker chips in a dangerous card game,” he concluded.
The fate of thousands of stolen Ukrainian children hangs in the balance as the world watches the upcoming summit, hoping for a breakthrough that prioritizes humanity over political leverage.