ANCHORAGE, ALASKA – As US President Donald Trump prepares to meet today with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for the first time in six years, the summit is being framed by analysts not just as a negotiation, but as a critical test of American diplomacy.
While the American president’s unconventional approach has drawn criticism, some analysts suggest he may hold significant, if fragile, leverage over the Kremlin – if he’s willing to use it.
Economic leverage
That leverage, according to analysts, is primarily rooted in Russia’s economic vulnerability. A recent analysis from the Yale School of Management characterizes the Russian economy as a “cart on straw legs,” due to a combination of sanctions and the sustained cost of the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Boyechko, the chief executive of the US-based humanitarian organization Hope for Ukraine, told Kyiv Post that Trump’s “enormous leverage” comes from his ability to further weaken Russia’s economy. “The number one thing Putin is expected to ask for is the lifting of sanctions on the Russian economy,” he said.
“President Trump has the power to tip that cart – by finally imposing severe sanctions on Russia’s shadow oil fleet and on the trading partners that continue to buy Russian oil,” he emphasized.
Energy Dilemma
The energy aspect of this leverage is a point of debate. Francesco Sassi, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Oslo, told Kyiv Post that Washington is “running out of good options to continue pressuring Moscow to end the war and use energy as leverage.”
He cautioned that the use of secondary sanctions could threaten the stability of global energy markets and suggested the summit would reveal whether energy is used as a tool for dialogue or becomes the basis for a broader “unprecedented energy conflict” with Russia and its BRICS partners.
Another White House consideration may be the role of Middle Eastern countries, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, either directly or indirectly, in Russia’s shadow fleet operations.
Challenge of a ceasefire
The complexity of using economic tools like energy sanctions is compounded by the risks inherent in any potential peace agreement. Even if Trump and Putin agree on a ceasefire today, experts warn that the most dangerous phase of the conflict could lie ahead.
Benjamin Jensen, the director of the Futures Lab at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Wasington-based think-tank, stressed the importance of pairing any ceasefire with non-military measures, such as a “sliding scale of preapproved sanctions” on Russian oil and gas.
“Nothing deters future Russian aggression better than knowing your adversaries can fight a protracted war,” he noted.
Test of diplomatic will
The challenge of ensuring a durable and safe peace brings the focus back to the diplomatic test at hand. Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) have outlined a range of potential outcomes for Friday’s summit – if Trump decides to use his leverage over Putin.
The most optimistic scenario would be a comprehensive framework for peace that includes an unconditional ceasefire and a roadmap for future Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, which is highly unlikely given the Kremlin’s track record of unyielding demands.
Conversely, a worst-case outcome would see Trump agree to a flawed deal that would force Ukraine to make unacceptable territorial concessions, which Kyiv would not accept, potentially causing a schism in transatlantic relations.
The most likely outcome, the CFR suggests, is a summit that produces “no real progress toward ending the war but no significant setback either,” with both sides issuing vague statements that allow them to declare victory.
This, however, would still be a diplomatic win for Putin, ending years of isolation and leaving European and Ukrainian allies concerned about their security.
As Boyechko told Kyiv Post, “Friday will be a test of whether the United States still holds its ground as a global superpower on the world stage.”