Let’s get real and cut to the chase. The Alaska Summit is not about ending Russian aggression in Ukraine. Russia, the aggressor, has no such intention. Putin’s purpose is to appear as a peacemaker and have sanctions lifted. Conflicting as it may seem, Trump wants to be the peacemaker as a mediator. So many peacemakers but yet there is no peace.
To use the bizarre metaphor from the Oval Office, the mediator has no cards in this game. Arguably he has nothing to say, demand or concede. He cannot make concessions on the part of the victim here. No doubt, Ukraine is missing so the formula for peace lacks an indispensable component, the aggrieved side.
There are so many issues that are well beyond the scope of Russia and America. There are war crimes, arrest warrants, there are matters of reconstruction. There are Russian assets held by Western banks. When the Summit was proposed by Putin, Trump suggested participation by the Ukrainian side, which was refused by the aggressor, thus essentially rendering the talks meaningless.
America, by Trump’s own admission cannot swap Ukrainian territory. Most importantly, there are international treaties, which set borders, that cannot be unset by invasions. The message that would send would be absolutely beyond the comprehension of a civilized world working towards international laws and their enforceability. No member of the United Nations could possibly recognize Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory.
However, it is not a waste of time entirely. Assuming good faith, Trump is there to end the killing. Trump wants a ceasefire to enhance his credentials as a peacemaker. After all, there is a Nobel Peace Prize to be won.
It has been said many times that the person with the greatest influence on Donald Trump will be the one who speaks with him last. Putin and his people will play that role at this summit.
Success in Alaska will be measured not by what is said, but what is unsaid. If Trump leaves the summit prematurely or even at its conclusion, convinced that Putin is pure evil and has no intention of stopping the indiscriminate killing, the Summit will have been a success for the good side. This may result in America rejoining the democratic free world. What follows next is difficult to predict. Trump may decide to assist Ukraine, perhaps not on the basis of the moral imperative but because he had been scorned essentially by Putin in Alaska. That would be the best possible conclusion.
What would be the worst possible conclusion? If Trump falls in love, as he did in Helsinki in 2018, and lifts American sanctions against Russia, declines to sell American munitions even through NATO intermediaries to Ukraine and terminates intelligence sharing. There is a Moscow Trump Tower consideration more than simply in the wind. As everyone knows Trump is susceptible to undue influence, especially flattery.
That could very well be problematic for Ukraine and would require a global reaction. It would put all of Europe in peril, beginning with the Baltic states. Europe would have to enhance its defense of Ukraine. Americans would have to rise as well. Irrespective of Trump and his MAGA acolytes, like Vice President JD Vance, who makes Trump appear less disgraceful, the majority of Americans are opposed to Russian aggression and support the Ukrainian defense of its land and people.
Even the worst possible scenario, and it is hyperbolic, does not destroy Ukraine and its people. The solution to Russian aggression includes many variables, many well beyond the control of America and any unhinged president. Ukrainians have been fighting Russian imperialism since the 17th century. While statehood has often been problematic, the struggle for it has been consistent. Ukrainians will not simply go away.
Besides, there are many nations that share Ukraine’s struggles. Many indigenous nations within the Russian empire are moving towards self-determination. An economically defeated Russia, based on global sanctions even bereft of American support, without the ability to pay the police state will result in turmoil that a financially deficient state cannot endure.
There are many variables in this equation. The Alaska Summit is merely one such variable and not the most significant.
So relax! Ukraine is not going anywhere. It will endure.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.