US President Donald Trump’s economic pressure campaign on India – intended to isolate Russia – has backfired. Instead of curbing ties between New Delhi and Moscow, it has triggered a diplomatic shift that is strengthening India-Russia relations and nudging India closer to China. This geopolitical realignment poses serious implications for both Ukraine and the Western alliance. It also marks a potential turning point in India’s foreign policy, as New Delhi reasserts its strategic independence in the face of American pressure.
India’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, recently concluded a three-day visit to Moscow that underscored deepening bilateral cooperation. The timing and tone of the visit sent a clear message: India will not bow to US demands, particularly those coming from Trump-era trade and energy policies.
Defiance in Moscow
Jaishankar’s trip was widely viewed as a diplomatic counter to Washington’s expectations. In public remarks, he accused the US of inconsistency on energy policy, saying:
“We are not the biggest purchasers of Russian oil. That is China. We are not the biggest purchasers of Russian LNG – I’m not sure, but I think that is the European Union… We are a country where, actually, the Americans said for last few years that we should help stabilize global energy markets, including by buying oil from Russia… So, quite honestly, we are very perplexed at the logic of the argument.”
His comments reflect India’s frustration with what it sees as Washington’s double standards – especially given that several EU countries continue importing Russian energy despite sanctions, and the Biden administration had encouraged stable oil prices ahead of the US presidential election in 2024.
Energy and trade: going deeper with Russia
Amid growing tensions with Washington – including a 50% tariff on Indian goods imposed by the Trump administration – India is doubling down on its relationship with Russia.
Jaishankar’s visit resulted in renewed commitments to joint oil and gas exploration projects, including in the Russian Far East and the Arctic. Bilateral trade has surged – from $13 billion in 2021 to $68 billion in 2024 – driven largely by India’s purchases of discounted Russian crude.
New Delhi is also seeking to rebalance this trade relationship. India hopes to offset the impact of US tariffs by expanding exports of textiles and pharmaceutical products to Russia.
Military ties and strategic corridors
While Russia’s war in Ukraine has slowed arms deliveries to India, Jaishankar’s visit reaffirmed the strength of the decades-old defense partnership between the two countries.
India is also pushing ahead with two strategic infrastructure projects aimed at facilitating trade with Russia:
- The International North-South Transport Corridor, which will bypass the Suez Canal by creating a land-sea route through Iran and Central Asia.
- The Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor, which will directly link India’s east coast with Russia’s Far East by sea.
These initiatives come as the future of the US-backed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) remains uncertain, particularly amid rising tensions between the Trump camp and New Delhi.
An unexpected opening with China
In a parallel development, Jaishankar recently met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in what many see as a symbolic thaw between two longtime Asian rivals. The meeting, which comes despite ongoing border disputes, signals a potential rapprochement driven by shared opposition to US economic pressure.
The two discussed security cooperation ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s planned trip to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit later this month. The visit would mark Modi’s first to China in seven years and could offer a rare opportunity for direct talks with President Xi Jinping.
A strategic realignment?
What began as an attempt to isolate Russia has instead pushed India to strengthen its ties with Moscow – and potentially Beijing as well. For Ukraine, which relies on support from the so-called Global South, this shift weakens its diplomatic hand. For the West, it complicates efforts to counterbalance China’s rise and Russia’s aggression.
Trump’s tariff war may have inadvertently triggered a broader realignment in Asia – one that could outlast his administration and reshape the global balance of power.