US May Offer Air and Intelligence Support to Guard Peace in Ukraine

Sources said that the US could rescind its offer if Europe did not seem to be living up to its commitments to safeguard a possible Ukraine settlement.

The US could provide intelligence assets, air defense support and battlefield oversight to support European-led efforts to enforce a peace settlement in Ukraine, according to Financial Times (FT) citing four officials.

Senior US officials reportedly told European counterparts that Washington is willing to offer “strategic enablers” including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), command and control and air defense assets to support European boots on the ground.

The support would come into play if a peace deal is struck in order to protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression after the war comes to a close.

The postwar support could involve US aircraft, logistics and ground-based radar supporting and enabling a European-enforced no-fly zone and air shield for Ukraine.

It would allow the US to engage in satellite monitoring of the ceasefire and to co-ordinate the cluster of European and other nations which have committed to deploying thousands of troops to Ukraine.

Responding to FT’s request for comment, the Pentagon said that the measures are “pre-decisional, and the defense department will not comment on pre-decisional topics.”

FT also writes that European officials had expressed concerns that deploying their troops on the ground would only work with the US enabling, overseeing and protecting them.

However, the officials told the outlet that the US could still rescind the offer if Europe does not appear to be living up to its commitment to send tens of thousands of ground troops to establish a peacekeeping force.

Western capitals have also reportedly come up with a rough plan involving a demilitarized zone that could be patrolled by neutral peacekeeping forces from a third country agreed by Ukraine and Russia.

Behind that, a more robust border would be defended by Ukrainian troops which had been armed and trained by NATO militaries, according to three out of four of the paper’s sources.

A White House spokesperson told FT that “Trump and his national security team continue to engage with Russian and Ukrainian officials” but that “it is not in the national interest to further negotiate these issues publicly.”

Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, confirmed FT’s reporting, saying discussions revolved around four to five European brigades “on the ground, provided by [the] coalition of the willing, plus ‘strategic enablers’ from the US.”

This marked a “big change from the spring,” he said, adding that the US “can provide the backbone that makes the whole security and deterrence architecture work.”

Last week, Donald Trump told Fox News that the US may be willing to assist a European force “especially, probably, by air,” saying “nobody has the kind of stuff we have,” and ruled out US boots on the ground.

On Aug. 25, though, Trump said “we haven’t even discussed the specifics” of security guarantees for Ukraine, though he underlined that the US would be “involved from the standpoint of backup.”

On Aug. 21, Politico reported that US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby had told a small group of allies that the US plans to play a “minimal” role in security guarantees and will expect Europe to shoulder much of the provision.

On Aug. 20, Bloomberg reported that about 10 countries had expressed willingness to send ground troops to form the foundation of security in postwar Ukraine.

It is thought that US intelligence has been vital to Ukraine’s war efforts, though the full extent of its influence cannot be known.

It has been said that the US provides data about the location of movement of Russian troops and heavy weapons alongside intended attacks, and that its intelligence has helped Ukraine to plan offensive operations.

Most notably, it was previously reported that the US had provided intelligence that helped Ukraine sink Russia’s flagship Black Sea missile cruiser, the Moskva, though it was thought that they did not know Ukraine would target the Moskva after ascertaining its location.

In February this year, there was a spike in American military aircraft activity over the western Black Sea in the hours before a Ukrainian attack on the Primorsko-Akhtarsky air base in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region.

The US Air Force has repeatedly flown Global Hawk surveillance drones into Black Sea air space, sometimes making passes of occupied Crimea and military facilities in Russia.

In May, the presence of a US RQ-4B Global Hawk strategic reconnaissance drone around the Black Sea area appeared to indicate that the US was shifting gears in its negotiations with Russia after appearing to cast its allegiance to Ukraine aside.