What could be behind the timing of the recent attacks exchange between Russian and Ukraine – especially the Russian attacks against civilian targets? Why are they so intense right now?
Ukraine and Russia are currently engaged in a high-pressure race. Ukraine is attempting to undermine the economic foundations of Russia’s war effort and state leadership through targeted attacks on industrial facilities, particularly the oil industry in the hinterland.
Russia is attempting to discourage and intimidate Ukraine and its partners with spectacular large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities and, more recently, also foreign representations. Moscow’s calculation behind it is that such massive bombing can secure an unjust Russian victorious peace before Russia’s economy is so damaged that supplying the army and population with sufficient fuel and energy becomes an unsolvable problem.
For the first time ever, one of the main buildings of the Ukrainian government has been hit? Intentionally?
This is probably more a result of the increased long-range capabilities of the Russian armed forces than a deliberate decision. There have been attempts to hit the government district before.
This is also unusual because Ukrainian air defenses are actually strongest in the center of Kyiv. Is there a previously unknown weak point here?
Apparently, the number of drones and missiles is so high that Ukrainian air defenses can no longer cope with this mass of flying objects. However, the military significance of these successful attacks on civilian targets is low. Moscow is hoping for a psychological effect.
President Zelensky’s hometown has also been bombed. Is Moscow trying to send a message with the intensity and targets of the attacks?
The increased attacks on Kryvyi Rih are probably also part of a kind of psychological warfare against the president, the Ukrainian people and foreign countries. The aim is to signal that Zelensky is a problem. And Zelensky is indeed a problem for Russia because, although he no longer enjoys the high popularity ratings he had in 2022, he is still respected both at home and abroad.
At the same time, Russia is attempting to delegitimize Zelensky with legalistic pseudo-arguments and to thereby achieve political destabilization and social division. The latter has been a Russian strategy since 2014.