President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said that Poland isn’t going to withstand a large Russian drone barrage and that Poland will lose people.
Zelensky’s comments drew the ire of the Polish Defense Minister. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz called the Ukrainian leader’s words unnecessary. Ukrainian officials were surprised that stopping an incursion of 19 drones over NATO territory, four of which got shot down, is a reason to celebrate. Ukraine downs hundreds of drones almost every day. Indeed, it feels as if Ukraine and NATO are living in parallel universes. NATO, in spite of its militarization across the board, including of the civilian population, is still living in the illusion of peace and appeasing Russia.
Ukraine deals with hard facts, not fantasies
Ukraine meanwhile has hard facts of life to deal with. The facts of facing genocide if its armed forces stop defending the country and stop striking back. Ukraine also has drone expertise that Poland and Western Europe desperately need. That’s another vital reason why Ukraine can’t fall. What happens if Russia captures political power in Kyiv and uses Ukrainian drone expertise against Europe? That would likely spell the end of the EU. If there’s an argument that US and European bureaucrats ought to understand, it’s this.
A Polish politician voices concerns over drone warfare
Russia is expanding its drone production. Moscow is preparing to potentially launch 2,000 drones against Ukraine in one night by November 2025. What if Poland got hit with a barrage of 2,000 drones? The leader of the far-right Confederation Party, Sławomir Mentzen, recently asked such a question. He was mercilessly attacked across the Polish political spectrum and called a Russian asset. Ridicule and accusations of being the Kremlin asset just because someone spoils a propagandistic scenario of Russia being on her knees isn’t a sound strategy, Mentzen’s political leanings notwithstanding. We’ve got to wake up and focus on the common enemy, and not on ourselves.
The potential barrage of 2,000 drones hitting Poland might even result in the collapse of the Polish state. NATO would likely issue a strong statement and that’s about it. That’s exactly the sentiment voiced by Russian propagandists and, sadly, they are likely correct in this instance.
The Polish population is not ready for drone barrages
In Poland, bunkers are scarce, and people are rarely concerned with siren sounds and what the siren signals mean. Millions of Poles have been brainwashed by Russian propaganda and sincerely believe it’s the Ukrainians who are trying to drag Poland into the war by staging drone incursions into Polish airspace.
It’s also vital to keep in mind that Poland is no Finland or Israel when it comes to the awareness of the population and bunker infrastructure. The Finns know exactly how to behave during an alert, be it a drone or a missile attack. That’s just not the case in Poland.
Is it already too late to learn about drone warfare from Ukraine?
The prevarications of US President Donald Trump when it comes to defending Poland against Russia don’t help. While some say it’s part of Trump’s grand strategy to fool Russia into complacency, it’s likely giving POTUS too much credit. Perhaps it is the American strategy to see Europe mired in chaos, perhaps even war, as that’s when – historically – the US becomes truly great.
While Kyiv is ready to share drone intel with Poland, one wonders if it isn’t already too late for the Polish military to master the art of drone warfare? Given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s penchant for testing NATO, we’ll likely know soon enough if President Zelensky’s words about Poland not being able to withstand a large-scale Russian drone barrage were hauntingly prescient.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.