During last week’s visit to Britain, US President Donald Trump was asked about his thoughts on Ukraine. He repeated the assertion that Ukraine does not affect the US.
“But, again, it doesn’t affect the United States… it doesn’t so much affect you [the UK]. Of course, you are a lot closer to the scene than we are. We have a whole ocean separating us.”
Three reasons why Ukraine is of singular significance to America
A defeat of Ukraine by Russia would of course be calamitous for Ukraine, but no less so for the US. Drone incursions into Romania, Poland and elsewhere, broken deep sea cables, burning warehouses and shopping malls, and other events, are merely a taste of what is in store for the stability, or rather the chaos, of Europe should Ukraine no longer hold the line.
In a superficial analysis, some people might think that a weakened Europe would be good for US strategic power, but a Europe at war and in upheaval would be catastrophic for America. In the case of a wider confrontation, it could not long hold out as a mere observing power; it would soon get dragged into war if the Ukrainian armed forces are removed from the order of battle and Russia pushes outwards to the Polish border, igniting mobilization, fear, terror, and a general disintegration of calm across Europe.
European calamity or not aside, the subjugation of Ukraine would provide incontrovertible proof to the autocrats that the West has neither the courage, stamina, nor the military might to stop the war. If we could not come to the aid of Ukraine, then we will fail to protect any other country whose territory may be enticing to those encouraged to expand by force.
The repercussions of this realization will have epochal ramifications within America because all future conflicts it finds itself entwined within and all its economic relationships will be shaped by this outcome. Many of them are unlikely to be beneficent.
Decisively bringing the war in Ukraine to an end by providing Kyiv with everything it needs to end Moscow’s aggression would send a clear message to the world that not only are we willing to fight, but we have the means and commitment to do so.
As the most powerful military and undeniably Europe’s crucial partner, any declaration that Ukraine is of no consequence to the US sets up a potentially fatal position. As in 1939, Americans should not be lulled into a false belief that a lack of tangible impact on their lives now means that the fate of Ukraine can be ignored as a distant concern.
The second reason
Beyond the realpolitik, one area of consequence is that Ukraine is the most important place in which the fate of free states is being decided.
In that time-honored struggle between states that embrace the ideas of individual dignity and freedom and those for whom the power of the government always takes precedence over the individual, a fight known only too well to the ancient Athenians as they faced off against the autocratic Persians, Ukraine is today the battlefield on which that same determination is given flesh.
What is being fought for in Ukraine is not a local conflict over who owns the territory of a certain part of the globe, nor is it even a contest to protect the so-called post-Second World War order. It is the hinge which determines whether the future will open towards democracy or autocracy. Fail in Ukraine and despotism will see it as a green light to advance.
A newly consolidated force of autocratic powers, whose opposition to the democratic order gets more assertive by the day, will flex its power more forcefully and move forwards with ever greater confidence. In the long term, this will cost the US far more, economically, militarily and in terms of its influence, than nipping the bud and demonstrating a steadfast dedication to securing democracy.
As with ancient Athens, the physical size of Ukraine is not the benchmark of its influence on global political affairs. It is that, like the ancient Greek city, it is the repository of all the hopes that free minds can prevail.
Those antagonists and nations who stand opposed to these aims understand this well and thus the outcome in Ukraine has taken on more than a geopolitical magnitude; it has become the test of which vision of our future will take center stage in the decades to come and into what arrangement world civilization itself will settle.
The third reason
This is more rooted in principle and in a political philosophical outlook. It is often said that the United States was one of the first countries, if not the first, to be built on an idea and not on a shared sense of history or nationhood. You can jump on a plane, arrive in America and with some hard work, perseverance, vision, and a few short years of effort, become a US citizen.
In many countries, even second or third generation residents get sideways looks. The US was based on a radical notion – that a nation could be founded on the idea of individual liberty and the ability of a person to achieve respect and recognition through their own efforts and not through acceptance of a bloodline or a polite nod and a pat on the back by established institutions.
These principles profoundly concern Ukraine because Americans, all Americans, should feel empathy and affiliation with any people who share the view of the centrality of the ideas of freedom in ordering lives and defining a nation.
Any country born in the idea of liberty as the foundation on which a person can improve their life and thus become kith and kin with their fellow citizens, should instinctively find common cause with others who work to defend their freedoms.
The devotion of a people reaching to secure their independence and protect their right to express their own way of living should resonate deeply, even if every other characteristic of that population were entirely different. On this score alone, the President of the United States of America should feel impelled to express unambiguous support.
America matters to Ukraine. Ukrainians see America as a partner in their economic, political and social ambitions. But equally, Ukraine matters to America. It is a hinge of freedom, a country committed to widening liberty’s field of action, and a country fighting for these ideas.
Charles Cockell is Professor of Astrobiology at the University of Edinburgh.