Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 22 that Russia will adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year following its expiration in February 2026 and used threats to urge the United States to do the same.
- Putin blamed the West for undermining Russian-US arms cooperation and violating bilateral arms agreements—ignoring how Russia has violated numerous multilateral and bilateral treaties in the past decades.
- Putin is attempting to pressure the Trump administration to engage in arms control talks to facilitate US-Russian rapprochement and extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine, as ISW forecasted Russia would in August 2025.
- Some Russian defense industrial enterprises are reportedly struggling to expand their production and workforces due to economic constraints, while the Kremlin is prioritizing funding for high-priority enterprises such as drone and missile manufacturers.
- The United Nations (UN) reported that the number of casualties from Russian drone strikes targeting Ukrainian civilians has increased by 40 percent so far in 2025 as compared to 2024.
- Ukrainian forces may have targeted high ranking Russian officials in a reported strike against occupied Crimea on the night of September 21 to 22.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
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