Russia’s government presented its draft of the federal budget for 2026–2028, but the deficit to GDP estimates remained unrevealed and may be higher than 2% of GDP.
During the cabinet meeting on Sept. 24, Russia’s government presented the key figures of revenue, spending, the dynamics of GDP and economic growth, oil price growth, and the three-year budget for Russia’s economy.
“According to the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia’s gross domestic product grew by 1.1% over the first seven months of the year. This performance is noticeably better than that of several countries still insisting on tightening sanctions against Russia – those who have refused mutually beneficial projects with Russian businesses and the country as a whole, and continue to maintain a negative rhetoric,” Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said during the cabinet meeting, according to a transcript.
The budget will be sent to Russia’s parliament for discussion and approval.
Russia’s officials disagree on GDP budget deficit figure
Mishustin presented the 2026 headline numbers: federal revenues of 40.3 trillion rubles ($483.4bn) and expenditure of 44 trillion rubles ($538.4bn), implying a deficit of about 4.6 trillion rubles ($55.2bn).
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the deficit would be 1.6% of GDP in 2026, narrowing to 1.2% in 2027 before edging up to 1.3% in 2028, although the ruble figures suggest a wider gap.
Russian media the Bell noted that the Ministry’s new assumptions reflect slower growth and higher spending pressures, especially on defense and social programs.
The ruble figures suggest a shortfall of nearly 4.6 trillion rubles ($55.2bn), which, based on the Economy Ministry’s new nominal GDP forecast of 243.3 trillion rubles ($2.9tn), means the deficit is roughly 2-2.2% of GDP, according to the Bell.
At the same time, for 2025, Russia’s deficit has already been revised higher to 2.6% of GDP from 1.7%, the Bell wrote.
Social programs, defense, and “industrial-tech investments” – top spending priorities
The budget underscores Moscow’s long-term focus on sustaining social programs, military readiness, and strategic industrial and technological development amid ongoing economic and geopolitical challenges.
Families with children will continue to receive support through maternity capital, direct payments and housing programs, totaling more than 2 trillion rubles ($24bn).
Healthcare funding under the national project “Long and Active Life” exceeds 900 billion rubles ($10.8bn) over three years, with an additional 94 billion rubles ($1.13bn) earmarked for child healthcare and perinatal infrastructure.
Education investments include school construction of approximately 110 billion rubles ($1.3bn), capital repairs of about 300 billion rubles ($3.6bn), vocational school renovations of over 60 billion rubles ($720m), and the creation of modern university campuses costing 170 billion rubles ($2bn).
Defense and security also receive substantial funding, covering military equipment, personnel, and support for families of special operation participants, as well as measures to counter drones and strengthen transport and border security.
Industrial and technological development is a key focus.
National projects promoting technological leadership are allocated 1.9 trillion rubles ($22.8bn) over three years, averaging more than 600 billion rubles ($7.2bn) per year.
Machine tool production will receive 118 billion rubles ($1.42bn), while emerging sectors like microelectronics and robotics are set to receive targeted funding.
Over 75 billion rubles ($900m) are planned for recapitalizing the Industrial Development Fund to provide preferential loans to enterprises involved in technological development.
Infrastructure spending includes transport, roads, and public transit modernization, with a budget of 4.6 trillion rubles ($55.2bn) over three years. Programs for urban and rural development are also prioritized, including the reconstruction and construction of at least 75 aerodromes by 2030.
Social insurance funding will exceed 14.5 trillion rubles ($174bn) for mandatory medical insurance over three years.
Pension and social funds are projected at around 60 trillion rubles ($720bn), covering pensions, support for families, and rehabilitation programs, while industrial accident insurance will receive 200 billion rubles ($2.4bn) in 2026.