ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
  • Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons.
  • Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova absurdly blamed Ukraine on September 26 for the September 9 to 10 Russian drone incursion in Poland and the September 13 Russian drone incursion in Romania.
  • European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy and western Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.

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