Skeptics beware. Russia is facing a catastrophic failure in their war against Ukraine. This thought was validated last week when US President Donald Trump blurted out on social media his eulogy on Russia’s defeat, declaring: Ukraine “can win back all its territory” seized by Russia and “Russia is a paper tiger”.
Trump’s reversal from his previous seemingly Pro Russia stance towards favoring Ukraine is a better-late-than-never acknowledgment of reality. Russia is emerging as the loser which is fueling Trumps ego.
Lately, he has been increasingly relying on knowledgeable Ukraine advisers, including his special envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg. They understand Russia’s doomed attack strategies, expansionist obsession and catastrophic battlefield losses. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have reduced capacity by a whopping amount further threating Russia’s already faltering economy.
Russia’s mathematical “Sword of Damocles”
Whether or not Trump changes his support for Ukraine is irrelevant. Russia will increasingly falter – a mathematical likelihood based on the continuing trajectory for the levels of war casualties. Kellogg recently said that Russian forces have experienced a million casualties since November 2022 in order to seize just 1% of Ukraine’s territory. Obviously, anyone who understands mathematics would conclude that Russia is careening towards defeat.
Former Navy seal Chuck Pfarrer who recently returned from Ukraine’s battlefield reveals a grimmer reality. During a recent interview with Jason Smart he describes an inept Russian army with morally bankrupt leaders, and poorly trained, undisciplined soldiers that are needlessly dying. Their attack strategies are suicidal that often result in them suffering 30 to 80 per cent casualties in the first hour.
To understand Russia’s monumental failure, one must place themselves in the shoes of their soldiers. Traditional battle lines separating opposing forces no longer exist. Most combat operations take place within a 10- to 20-mile-wide kill zone. Russian forces are rely on antiquated WW2 tactics – they advance toward the enemy en-masse into swarms of drones where they die like flies. Russia has not adapted to the modern reality of drone warfare.
Russia’s poorly trained and disorderly troops are no match against the skillful, patriotic and unquenched courage of Ukrainian soldiers. At a briefing in conjunction with a September United Nations Assembly Trump championed Ukraine’s “very brave soldiers” while chastising Russia’s undistinguished war effort.
Wounded bear increasingly relies on terror
Russia’s battlefield failures have caused them to redirect deadly strikes at non-military civilian infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and apartments. According to the Institute of the Study of War, Russia has dramatically ramped up drone strikes, despite ongoing peace negotiations. From January through May a daily average of 120 drone strikes were recorded compared with 185 from May to August.
The goal of these deadly strikes is simply to terrorize the Ukrainian people into submission. But the legendary resiliency of the Ukrainian people will never capitulate to Moscow’s extermination decree to murder Ukraine’s 40 million people. Obviously, if Russia was winning, as Putin absurdly claims, they would be exclusively hitting military targets – not unarmed civilians. Horrific Images including the execution of a Ukrainian toddler has propelled a furious resolve from Congress to punish Russia with devastating consequences.
Russia is increasingly threatening numerous NATO states with a flurry of drone and aircraft incursions. These incursions are hurtling Europe closer to a direct war with Russia. Putin appears recklessly desperate, caught in the dictator trap of his own making, unable to find a viable exit from his war without losing face.
Trumps depiction of Russia as a “Paper Tiger” with a sketchy economy caused a furious rebuttal from the Kremlin. In predictable Soviet fashion, Russia’s former President Dimitry Medvedev called for nuclear retaliation, an obvious bluff that reinforces the image of Moscow’s desperation and failure.
This was followed by another desperate move by Putin – his call for the additional conscription of 135,000 soldiers, the largest in over a decade. But Russia’s advantage based on superior numbers is not a winning strategy. Ukraine’s soldiers are defeating Russia with their innovation, patriotism and courage while leading the world in drone warfare. Russia’s poorly trained soldiers resemble demoralized zombies destined to die needlessly at Putin’s whim.
As Commander in Chief, President Trump should expedite Russia’s devastation by leveraging America’s 30 trillion economy by implementing crippling tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and providing Ukraine with advanced long-range weaponry. For meaningful peace to occur Russia must be stopped with actions not words.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.