ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • German officials reported more unidentified drone sightings near airports and military facilities.
  • Russia continues to challenge and probe NATO states’ capabilities, possibly as part of preparations for a potential future Russia-NATO war.
  • Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine that resulted in civilian casualties and damaged critical energy infrastructure.
  • Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries, exacerbating ongoing gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
  •  Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

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