The annual inflation rate in September accelerated its fall, reaching 11.9% compared to the same figures last year, with one of the steepest monthly decreases since its peak.
The inflation rate fell 1.3% compared to the 13.2% inflation in August this year. This is not the most rapid decrease – inflation dropped by 1.6% during May-June – but ranks second in the overall deceleration pace figures.
Ukraine’s State Statistics Service estimated core inflation in September 2025 to be at 11% year-over-year, according to the report released by Ukraine’s State Statistics Service. In August, it was 11.4%
Unlike the overall inflation, core inflation – the benchmark that excludes volatile prices that can distort the picture of overall price stability – is decelerating at a much slower, though steady pace.
Fruits and vegetables remained the key decelerating factor, thanks to the new harvests, though meat and fish showed an upward trend. Prices for clothes started accelerating after a trend for price reductions. Meanwhile, prices for services in healthcare and education increased by 12.4% and 0.8% respectively. Restaurants, hotels and services also increased by 0.8%-1.2%.
Harvest supply expands, curbing price growth
Both headline and core inflation slowed in September for the fourth consecutive month, in a wide range of components, primarily food, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), wrote in its October 2025 Macroeconomic and Monetary Review.
Fruit and vegetable prices – one of the key contributors to higher inflation in Ukraine over the last year alongside war-caused energy costs and labor shortage – fell by 11.8% and 10.6% respectively in September compared to August.
The increased supply of new-harvest agricultural products significantly curbed inflation, driving down prices for both raw and processed foods, NBU wrote.
Sugar decreased by 1.5%, eggs became more expensive by 2.9%.
Rail passenger transport fares decreased by 0.7%.
The price of telecommunication services stopped rising after an increase in mobile service tariffs, showing a 0.1% fall.
Despite the upcoming harsh winter and strikes on energy facilities, prices for electricity and gas remained unchanged, as government-imposed tariff caps prevented them from rising.
But the energy factor pressing inflation last year – increased purchases of energy equipment for business to survive Russia’s war-caused blackouts and surviving through a 60% increase of electricity in the second half of 2024 – no longer impacts inflation.
Clothing and education lead upward trends
However, fundamental price pressures remained significant, particularly due to imbalances in the labor market, according to the NBU October 2025 Macroeconomic and Monetary Review.
After a steady trend of deceleration, clothes and footwear prices increased by 8.2% compared to August 2025, with clothing up 9.1% and footwear up 7.3%.
Education services rose sharply by 12.4%, including higher education by 16.8% and secondary education by 8.5%.
Prices for pork fat, sunflower oil, fish and fish products, dairy products, meat and meat products, grain processing products, non-alcoholic beverages, bread, and butter increased by up to 4%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose by 1.2%, including a 1.4% rise for tobacco products and a 1.0% rise for alcoholic beverages.
In 2025, excise goods rose in price following tighter controls on shadow supply, a higher minimum retail price for wine, introduced on Dec. 1, 2024, and new tax rules for tobacco manufacturers and importers effective March 25, 2025, NBU wrote.
Inflation in Ukraine started decelerating from its 15.9% peak in May, even though it has been quite sticky.
An energy deficit, migration and workforce deficit – all results of devastating Russian military actions against Ukraine, especially strikes in the fourth quarter of 2024 – caused businesses to pay more for electricity and talent acquisition and pass these costs on to consumers. After electricity prices for Ukraine’s business increased by 60%, the war-torn economy experienced additional pressure on prices, caused by drought in 2024.
It caused a chain reaction of price increases in raw food products, processed food products, and the cost of meals Ukrainians eat outside their homes. Prices of raw food products also impacted the rising costs of livestock feed, fueling prices of livestock products.
But for now, the cycle of rising inflation seems to be attenuating. That could change if Russia strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure cause another spike.