The OSINT Warfare milblogger published an image on X on Saturday that appeared to show a Russian MiG-31K/L (NATO: Foxhound) fighter-bomber carrying a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile being refueled mid-air by an Il-78 (NATO: Midas) tanker aircraft believed to be somewhere over Russia. Kinzhals have been used by Moscow to attack Ukrainian civilian cities and infrastructure on multiple occasions.
Military commentators see this as a change in tactic that allows the fighter to launch its attacks from deep inside Russia beyond Ukraine’s early warning, aerial surveillance systems reducing the time for Ukrainians to take cover or deploy air defense assets. The use of air-refueling increases the MiG 31’s operating range and endurance, allowing it to loiter for longer periods before firing its missiles.
It may also explain comments made to the Financial Times in early October by Western officials that Ukraine’s ability to intercept ballistic missile strikes had become far more challenging – suggesting that reduced warning times and an ability of Kinzhal / Iskander missiles to change course mid-flight had reduced intercept rates, with US-supplied MIM-104 Patriot missile systems in Ukrainian service able to achieve intercept rates of only 6% against a previous high of 80%.
MiG-31 as the “ideal” launch platform
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion Russia has refurbished and modernized a large proportion of the 150 or so that remain from the original 500 that began to enter service from 1994 onwards.
The MiG-31K was modernized and developed from the original “standard” MiG-31B specifically to carry and launch the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile, which itself is a variant of 9K720 Iskander-M ground-based ballistic missile system.
Changes included modifications to the internal configuration of the aircraft to allow an increase to the fuel capacity needed to carry the heavy missile along with the addition of additional targeting and control of the missile, which included the ability to receive encrypted data that allows the crew to program the missile’s launch coordinates from the cockpit in flight.
The MiG-31L, which was unveiled during Russia’s Army-21 conference and exhibition, is a further enhanced version which is believed to include a system that autonomously positions the aircraft at the right attitude, altitude and speed to launch its payload. It is rumored the MiG-31L is able to both launch and attack low orbit satellites.
Russia’s investment in tanker aircraft
Ironically the bulk of the Soviet Union’s aerial tanker fleet was positioned in Ukraine when it collapsed which left Russia with a deficit in the resources needed to service its aerospace forces. In the intervening thirty-five years the focus has been on converting its Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft for dual cargo and refueling roles, the latter achieved by equipping them with three refueling pods: one under the fuselage and one under each wing.
Use of these tankers has been prioritized for the support of Russia’s strategic aviation assets including its Tupolev Tu-22M3 (NATO: Backfire), Tu-95MS (NATO: Bear-H) and Tu-160 (Blackjack) strategic bombers. It is now considered likely that, at least for the duration of the war in Ukraine, the MiG-31K/L’s have been granted priority access to the tanker assets controlled by Russia’s Strategic Aviation Command.