European officials are reportedly coalescing around the view that using around €200 billion ($232 billion) in frozen Russian central bank assets may be the only practical path to secure long-term funding for Ukraine as other sources of support dry up.
According to people briefed on internal discussions cited by Bloomberg, the European Union aims to clinch a political agreement at a summit meeting of leaders in Brussels next week.
Once a consensus has been reached, the bloc’s executive is expected to swiftly draft a legal mechanism that would allow the first transfers of funds by the second quarter of next year, the sources said.
The urgency stems from a shifting burden of support, with Washington signaling it will no longer finance weapon deliveries, meaning that Europe is taking on increasing responsibility for Ukraine’s military and economic needs.
Under the emerging proposal being discussed by the EU, Ukraine would receive around €140 billion ($163 billion) in fresh loans backed by the frozen assets.
The loans would be repayable only if Russia eventually agrees to compensate Kyiv for war damages.
The EU maintains that the assets will remain frozen unless reparations are paid, and officials are exploring a way to extend the freeze through majority voting rather than requiring unanimous approval.
To shield against legal risks, the bloc or a coalition of participating member states would offer guarantees to Euroclear, the Belgium-based clearing house where the assets are held, to ensure it can honor potential Russian claims if court challenges arise.
Belgium has so far resisted the plan, insisting that any guarantees must be watertight from a legal standpoint before it can assent.
According to a Financial Times report from last week, plans by the European Union to coordinate the transfer of €140 billion ($163 billion) in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine by December could be delayed due to Belgium’s objections to the proposed “reparations loan.”
EU member states are also debating how to structure the aid, including whether the funds should go towards military or economic support, or both.
Another question is whether they will require that the money should be spent on supplies sourced in Europe.
Sources cited by Bloomberg said that Kyiv would likely require more than $200 billion to sustain its defenses and keep its economy afloat through to the end of this decade if the war continues.
The debate comes amid fears that political and fiscal strains across the continent are intensifying, with some analysts saying that patience is wearing increasingly thin among the electorate when it comes to aid for Ukraine.
Countries are also balancing Ukraine’s needs with demands to increase spending on their own security.
Kyiv, meanwhile, continues to urge allies to provide more air defense systems and long-range strike capabilities to hit military targets deep inside Russia, paralelling Moscow’s ruthless attacks on Ukraine’s cities and energy infrastructure.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Moscow that he could arm Ukraine with long-range and much-feared Tomahawk cruise missiles to strike deep into Russian territory if Moscow does not move to settle the war.
Speaking at a briefing in Kyiv this week, New York-based attorney Jamison Firestone said that the EU’s plan “takes nothing from Euroclear or Russia,” since the proposal does not entail confiscation of Russian assets or the direct use of Russian cash.
However, the Kremlin has threatened retaliation if the plan is carried out, calling it “theft” and suggesting that it could seize Western assets in Russia in a tit-for-tat move.