ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks, marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces appear to be conducting larger mechanized assaults during rainy and foggy weather conditions, which complicate Ukrainian drone operations.
  • Kremlin officials continue to apply the same narratives to the Baltic states that Russia has used to justify its invasions of former Soviet states in the past three decades.
  • The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its unwillingness to compromise or engage in good-faith peace negotiations.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area.

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