WASHINGTON, DC – A flurry of high-stakes diplomacy orchestrated by US President Donald Trump has injected fresh uncertainty into the Washington-Kyiv axis. A looming decision on long-range Tomahawk missiles appears to have triggered a calculated intervention from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On the eve of a crucial Oval Office meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump announced on Thursday a tentative timeline for a second summit with Putin in Budapest “within the next two weeks.”
This announcement, coming on the heels of a “very productive” phone call with the Russian leader, immediately raised red flags among seasoned foreign policy veterans and on Capitol Hill. Many see a familiar script of delay tactics at play.
Ex-ambassador: Trump holds the cards, Putin is spooked
The diplomatic drama was immediately framed by a sharp analysis from former US ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor.
In an interview with Kyiv Post Thursday afternoon, Taylor, a veteran diplomat who served in Kyiv under three different administrations, argued that Putin’s sudden push for dialogue is a clear signal of weakness, not strength.
“Putin is clearly worried about Tomahawks going to Ukraine, as he should be,” Ambassador Taylor emphasized.
He drew a direct comparison to a previous diplomatic flurry in August, when Trump’s sanctions on India for buying Russian oil “spooked” Putin, leading to a meeting in Alaska.
Taylor posits that history is repeating itself. “The main message is, when he sees President Trump getting ready to do something serious on either weapons or sanctions, Putin asks for a meeting,” he stated.
When asked who holds the leverage, Taylor was unequivocal: “Trump is clearly holding the cards, and Putin knows it. This is why Putin asked for the phone call,” he said.
He stressed that Trump has the power to decide on sanctions, advanced weaponry, and the seizure of frozen Russian Central Bank assets.
For Taylor, the key indicators of success in the upcoming meeting with Zelensky will be momentum toward providing Tomahawks, imposing new sanctions on Russia, and moving to seize the frozen Central Bank assets.
Caution on Tomahawks
Trump, speaking from the White House, confirmed the intensive diplomatic track. He revealed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov would meet “very soon beforehand” to prepare for the Budapest parley.
Trump described the relationship between the warring nations’ leaders as “terrible,” thereby underscoring his perceived role as the necessary, singular mediator.
He also made a candid concession about his past approach: “I believed Russia’s war would be easier to deal with due to my relationship with President Putin,” Trump admitted, an acknowledgement that his rapport with the Russian leader has not yielded the quick results he once expected.
The most scrutinized remarks, however, concerned the potential transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles. While Ukraine sees the long-range ordnance as essential leverage to bring Russia to the negotiating table, Trump sounded a note of caution that immediately fueled speculation of a softening stance post-Putin call.
“We need Tomahawks for the US too – we have a lot of them, but we need them,” Trump said, adding: “We can’t deplete for our country... I don’t know what we can do about that.”
Analysts suggest this newfound hesitancy follows a clear pattern: a threat of decisive action from the US side, followed by a Kremlin-initiated diplomatic overture – in this case, a phone call timed perfectly before Zelensky’s arrival – designed to delay or derail the decision.
Furthermore, the White House readout of the call, which Trump touted as “very productive” with “great progress,” suggests Putin’s tactic may have found some success in tempering the US position.
Zelensky’s counter-leverage: strength and justice
Arriving in Washington, President Zelensky wasted no time in attempting to seize the narrative and maintain pressure. He explicitly linked his country’s aspirations to a recent diplomatic win for the White House.
Ukraine, he said, is “counting on the momentum that worked in ending terror in the Middle East will help end the war with Russia.”
Crucially, Zelensky suggested that the request for Tomahawks is already working as a powerful diplomatic lever, stating that Russia is only “rushing to resume dialogue as it hears about Tomahawks.”
The Ukrainian President made clear his hope for the Oval Office meeting, declaring: “The language of strength and justice will inevitably work against Russia.”
Capitol hill and analysts express skepticism
The announcement of a second Trump-Putin summit, following a previous one in Alaska that yielded little tangible progress, drew immediate and sharp criticism from Washington observers and Capitol Hill.
“This feels like history is repeating itself,” warned one political analyst, noting a pattern where Trump is “poised to throw his support behind Ukraine” with threats, only for Putin to “somehow manage to talk him down and buy more time.”
Senior Senate Democrats condemned the move as rewarding Russian aggression. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a pointed statement: “After walking away from his Alaska summit with Putin empty handed, President Trump has now decided to reward Putin again by rolling out the red carpet in Hungary... President Trump continues to get strung along by Putin,” he noted.
Shaheen stressed that Congress must act decisively, voicing encouragement that Majority Leader Thune intends to move the Graham-Blumenthal Russia sanctions bill to a vote.
Meanwhile, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) expressed his frustration on social media: “It sounds a lot like ‘two more weeks.’ Meanwhile, Putin continues to bomb cities and hospitals.”
Experts are warning that Putin’s primary strategy is simply to buy time to take more sovereign Ukrainian territory. Their shared conclusion is that a “hard line in the sand needs to be drawn with a date and soon to agree to peace, or we send Tomahawks and maximum pressure sanctions.”
The central question hanging over Washington remains: Is President Trump wielding the Tomahawk threat as genuine leverage to force an end to the war, or has Putin successfully drawn him into yet another diplomatic time-sink, delaying a decisive military aid package that Kyiv desperately needs?
All eyes are now fixed on the Friday meeting with President Zelensky to see if the powerful missile system moves from a negotiating threat to an operational reality.