Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- US President Donald Trump’s October 17 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly ended with Trump supporting a ceasefire on the current frontlines and not Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands that Ukraine cede territory in Donetsk Oblast to Russia.
- Kremlin voices clarified Russia’s position on negotiations following Western reporting about the October 17 Trump-Zelensky meeting in order to reiterate that Russia remains committed to addressing the alleged “root causes” of the war and is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire.
- The Kremlin is priming the Russian people for a full victory in Ukraine whatever the cost — a domestic effort that is at odds with Putin’s reported willingness to make territorial concessions.
- The Kremlin is leaning into its cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian forces as relentlessly advancing and a Russian victory as inevitable. This effort aims to obscure the reality that Russian forces are only making minimal gains at disproportionately high manpower costs and that Russia is unlikely to obtain its strategic objectives by force in the short- or medium-term.
- Russian officials are also attempting to falsely portray ongoing limited Russian operations in the Kherson direction as the start of a new major Russian offensive in the province.
- The Kremlin is attempting to use all available informational avenues to convince the United States, Europe, and Ukraine to acquiesce to the Kremlin’s demands by convincing them that a Russian victory in Ukraine is certain when it is anything but.
- Kremlin officials are attempting to present Ukraine as the obstacle to peace to obfuscate how Putin himself has been impeding the process by insisting that Ukraine cede more territory than Russian forces currently occupy.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Velykyi Burluk direction.
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