The sense of urgency among Kyiv’s partners has sharpened after yet another Trump reversal: barely a month after musing that Ukraine could still reclaim all its land he is now signaling he would countenance carving up the Donbas. That U-turn – echoing Kremlin-favored framing – has revived fears he will try to force concessions on Zelensky and puts fresh pressure on Europe ahead of tomorrow’s EU summit in Brussels to prove, in deeds not declarations, that its support won’t wobble.
Brussels, again
It feels like an endless loop. The same drama in a slightly different costume. Following this year’s Trump-Zelensky clash at the White House, European leaders lined up behind President Volodymyr Zelensky. In the wake of the Alaska meeting – billed as a test of US-Russia diplomacy – capitals across the EU renewed their vows of solidarity.
And now, following last Friday’s sobering meeting in Washington – where hopes for Tomahawk missile deliveries were quietly deflated and Zelensky was once more nudged toward a freeze along the current front line – attention shifts yet again to Brussels.
The European Council convenes Thursday, Oct. 23, in Brussels – yet instead of entering the talks with the confidence of a united Western voice, EU leaders once again find themselves under pressure, facing the prospect of an upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Budapest.
Outlook: What’s on the table?
On the agenda are new tranches of weapons and air-defense systems, a scheme to convert frozen Russian assets into financing for Kyiv, and a 19th sanctions package aimed at pressuring Moscow to return to the negotiating table.
In her statement on the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that Europe must hit the financing of Russia’s war effort at the root.
She announced an import ban on Russian liquefied natural gas, saying: “It is time to turn off the tap. We are prepared for this. We have been saving energy, diversifying supplies and investing in low-carbon sources of energy like never before. Today, these efforts pay off.”
Turning off the oil tap
The EU also plans to lower the price cap for Russian crude oil to $47.60 per barrel and to sanction another 118 vessels from Russia’s so-called shadow fleet – bringing the total number of listed ships to more than 560. Rosneft and Gazpromneft will also be subject to a full transaction ban.
“In three years, Russia’s oil revenues in Europe have gone down by 90%. We are now turning that page for good,” von der Leyen added.
The new package targets financial loopholes and evasion schemes: for the first time, transactions involving cryptocurrencies will be banned. Banks in third countries will be added to the list and companies in special economic zones will face new restrictions.
Finally, the EU is expanding its export controls on dual-use technologies – another 45 companies in Russia, China, and the Middle East will be barred from accessing Western goods, aiming to weaken Russia’s drone and missile production.
Fico’s veto
But the Union’s unity is once again under strain. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico reiterated on X that he is “interested in dealing with new sanctions packages against Russia,” as long as there are no “conclusions of the EC summit” to ease the burden on the car industry and bring down energy prices.
He explicitly ties any lift of his veto on additional Russia sanctions to such concrete solutions. Without them, Fico says, he will not back a new package.
For now, there are tentative signs Brussels is softening its position.
Addressing energy costs, von der Leyen said household and corporate bills remain high and vary “significantly from country to country,” weakening the EU’s competitiveness against the US and China, where prices are lower. Seeking to close that gap, she pledged to “table relevant proposals as soon as possible.”
“We need to study short term, effective EU measures to reduce energy prices in the Union, while safeguarding the internal level playing field,” von der Leyen wrote in a pre-summit letter to EU leaders.
Frozen assets plan
Another key agenda item will be the use of frozen Russian assets. According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, about $203 billion are held across the bloc, most of them at Euroclear, a Belgium-based financial market infrastructure group.
The European Commission proposes leveraging these holdings into a “reparation loan” for Ukraine while keeping the assets themselves frozen. Germany has signaled support: Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he will recommend a reparation loan of roughly $163 billion at the summit, Reuters reported.
How the scheme works
In essence, the EU scheme swaps claims on frozen cash for EU or member-state bonds, using proceeds from matured Russian securities at Euroclear – without touching the underlying Russian assets.
As New York lawyer Jamison Firestone explained during a briefing in Kyiv last week, the legal design takes nothing from Euroclear or Russia: “Russia’s balance in Euroclear remains unchanged, as does Euroclear’s balance. Nothing is being taken from anyone,” Firestone said. That’s why the move is about raising financing rather than confiscation.
Given that Belgium, as Euroclear’s host, would shoulder litigation and operational exposure, it is pressing for burden-sharing and greater legal clarity.
The European Central Bank, as well, after early reservations, is now playing a “constructive role,” according to RFE/RL.
Signals to Moscow
“If we send the message that we are willing and able to support Ukraine for the next two or three years, that will enter into [Russia’s] calculations when they’re discussing peace,” one EU diplomat, speaking to Politico on condition of anonymity, said.
For Kyiv, the question is existential – not only because US aid is faltering, but because the war is burning through cash. The funding is needed now. Even partial progress this week would signal to Moscow that Ukraine can sustain the fight for a longer time to come.
Kyiv’s budget reality
Absent the EU loan, the National Bank of Ukraine, in its baseline scenario, projects external financing needs of about $65 billion for 2026–27. With steady US support in doubt, the initiative is described in private as the “last bullet” to bolster Kyiv in any talks with Russia, Politico reports.
“Ukraine must be in the strongest possible position – before, during, and after any ceasefire,” Zelensky and the leaders of the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Norway, Finland and Denmark, declared in a joint statement on Tuesday.
“Russia’s stalling tactics have shown time and time again that Ukraine is the only party serious about peace. We can all see that Putin continues to choose violence and destruction. International borders must not be changed by force,” the declaration continues, which was also signed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa.
The week ahead
Diplomats expect Zelensky to address EU leaders at Thursday’s summit – either in person or via video – to rally their support. According to Reuters, attention then shifts to London on Friday, where Ukraine’s backers will convene in the “coalition of the willing” format.
For 10 Downing Street, none of this is new. The scenes keep repeating. The only question is when – or if – a real breakthrough will come.