In an interview for German newspaper Tagesspiegel, Andreas Umland answers questions about the Kremlin’s latest nuclear-capable wonder-weapon announcement.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had successfully tested a new nuclear-capable cruise missile. What is known about Burevestnik and its potential uses?
The Storm Petrel – the translation of “Burevestnik” – is an older Russian project for a nuclear-powered cruise missile with a particularly long range, which Putin had already announced in 2018 and which was previously known for its failed test runs.
Originally, the project had less to do with the Russo-Ukrainian War than with Washington’s 2002 termination of the 1972 US-Soviet treaty on the limitation of missile defense systems.
Although the nuclear propulsion of this cruise missile is something new, the weapon does little to change the current balance of power between the US and Russia, which is determined by intercontinental missiles with multiple warheads.
In the wake of the Russo-Ukrainian War, various air defense systems are developing rapidly around the world. It is therefore unclear whether this long-range cruise missile still has the significance it appeared to have when it was first announced in 2018.
How could Burevestnik change Russia’s warfare?
Burevestnik is likely to be of little significance for Russia’s warfare in Ukraine, partly because the flight times of cruise missiles between the countries are short and therefore the decisive advantage of the Storm Petrel would be of little use.
The question would also arise as to what extent the use of Burevestnik – even with a conventional and non-nuclear warhead – would be a further violation of the Budapest Memorandum. Presumably, the impact of a nuclear-powered missile could lead to radioactive contamination of the impact area. This would make Burevestnik not only a potential nuclear weapon, but also, with a non-nuclear warhead, a radiological weapon or so-called “dirty bomb.”
The likely effect of deploying Burevestnik in Ukraine would be Ukrainian attempts to load Ukraine’s existing cruise missiles – such as Neptune or Flamingo – with radioactive material and fire them at Russia. This would be an enormous escalation of the war, triggering global reactions. It is therefore unlikely that this weapon will be used in Ukraine.
Trump has just announced sanctions against Russia. Are the two unrelated, or is Putin trying to demonstrate strength right now by showing that the sanctions are ineffective?
Putin’s recent announcement of the Burevestnik cruise missile is related to the Russo-Ukrainian War and intended to scare Ukraine’s Western partners. According to Moscow, Burevestnik is a wonder weapon against which there is no remedy.
However, the question arises as to what extent the cruise missile is actually ready for use. Furthermore, it is unclear whether this new delivery system, if it is indeed functional, can substantially change the current balance of power. Russia already has various delivery systems for nuclear warheads and is now introducing another one.
Burevestnik’s enormous range and long flight duration are undoubtedly an advantage. However, it is questionable whether this capacity actually makes the missile uninterceptable and represents a significant operational advantage. Therefore, Putin’s recent public announcement of this alleged superweapon seems to be more part of Russia’s psychological warfare against the West than a harbinger of a real shift in the balance of power.
The aim is to intimidate voters and politicians in Europe and North America and deter them from providing further aid to Ukraine. One can only hope that Western capitals recognize this function of the Burevestnik project.