The election results of the Dutch general elections on Wednesday, Oct. 29, remain too close to call to determine the final winner.
The vote margin between social-liberal Democratic 66 (D66) and the populist right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV) is marginal, with overseas ballots potentially decisive in determining the final outcome.
For now, D66 leads the race with a small margin. Initial exit polls from Wednesday suggested that D66 led the race with a narrow victory.
Final results are expected next week, and a recount may be required due to the narrow gap.
As of Thursday, both the social-liberal D66 and the populist right-wing PVV secured 26 seats of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament. The right-wing liberals of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) placed third with 22 seats.
D66’s unexpected surge caught many by surprise, as Geert Wilders’s PVV had led pre-election polls.
The social democrats of GroenLinks-PvdA, who were in opposition, fell short of expectations with 20 seats. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) secured 18 seats, marking a significant recovery from their previous tally of five seats in the 2023 election.
The primary issues of the elections include the societal impact of migration and the ongoing housing shortage. Another key topic is how political parties plan to finance increased defense spending to reach NATO’s 5% GDP target.
Many parties propose funding these defense investments through a combination of tax increases and cuts to healthcare spending.
The parties of the collapsed coalition – the PVV, the right-wing liberal VVD, the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and the centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – received fewer votes than in previous elections, following their unstable reign and breakup over migration policy.
Notably, the centrist NSC, a standout winner in 2023 as a new party, did not get enough votes to get a seat in parliament.
The Netherlands’ political landscape remains highly fragmented – according to the latest results, 15 parties will have a seat in parliament. A coalition will need to be formed after the dust has settled.
The largest party will have the first opportunity to form a coalition. The Dutch Electoral Council will determine the final winner on Nov. 7.
The formation of a new coalition is expected to take some time and will be a challenge, as four or five parties must partner up to secure a majority. Furthermore, most parties exclude cooperation with the populist PVV.
Impact on Ukraine
The Netherlands is one of the biggest supporters of Kyiv’s fight against Russia.
The Netherlands has allocated €9.58 billion ($11 billion) in aid to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the Kiel Institute.
The Netherlands and Ukraine are collaborating on drone production. There are also drones produced in the Netherlands that are used by Ukraine to hit targets in Russia.
The social-liberal D66 fully supports Ukraine in its war against Russia. In their party program, they emphasize that it is crucial for Ukraine to join the EU as quickly as possible and to be integrated into NATO. The party also advocates for increased investments in integration programs for Ukrainians residing in the Netherlands.
The PVV stated in its party program that it wants to send all Ukrainian men back to Ukraine so they can help their country. The party also proposes reducing financial aid to Ukraine and prioritizing Dutch interests.
Larger parties like the VVD, CDA and GroenLinks-PvdA want to host Ukrainian refugees, keep on supporting Ukraine and invest in defense. Forum for Democracy (FvD), a party that seeks to halt all funding to Ukraine and strengthen ties with Russia, got six seats. It is unlikely that the FvD will join the coalition.