The false Russian propaganda narrative is now going up in flames. Literally. Russia has for years invested enormous resources to weaken Western democracies and was partially successful in fooling the Trump administration. But now Ukraine is setting fire to several Russian oil refineries weekly, and the Russian economy is in major trouble.
Trump no longer seems to believe that his personal relationship with Putin can bring about change, and his administration no longer seems to believe the poisoned Russian narrative. This shift is the result of strong diplomatic work by Zelensky and European leaders.
The depiction many have encountered is familiar. Ukraine is portrayed as inferior, engaged in a desperate and hopeless struggle against a Russian force that is steadily advancing. Russia is described as possessing inexhaustible manpower and resources, capable of sustaining the war indefinitely. According to this narrative, the Ukrainian front is fragile, and both the Trump administration and European leaders have acknowledged this, prompting efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict. The current focus, it is claimed, is on establishing security guarantees that would enable Ukraine to feel sufficiently protected to enter into a peace agreement. Such an agreement, it is argued, must involve compromises from both sides.
This narrative originates in Moscow. It has been echoed by the Trump administration, which has sought to normalize relations with Russia. Alarmingly, it has also been repeated by respected media outlets and analysts, who continue to report on alleged Russian breakthroughs.
Yet this narrative is fundamentally flawed. It does not reflect the reality on the ground.
Its purpose has been to weaken the resolve of Western democracies against Russian imperialism. It aims to erode Western unity in support of Ukraine and to shift the framework of any potential negotiations in Russia’s favor.
If one examines the actual situation on the battlefield and resists being distracted by political rhetoric or superficial reporting, reality becomes clear. Russia’s propaganda machine is relentless, but it cannot conceal the strategic failures it has suffered. Ukraine is winning this war.
From the outset, Russia’s goals were clear, even if disguised by slogans such as denazification and demilitarization. In practical terms, this meant overthrowing Ukraine’s government, installing a pro-Russian puppet regime, rewriting the constitution, and embedding Russian military power permanently in Ukraine. But after three and a half years of war, Russia now occupies less than 20% of Ukrainian territory, down from nearly 30% at its peak in March 2022. This is not a tactical setback. It is a strategic failure. Losing ground after one thousand days of war compared to what was held after just three weeks is indefensible.
At the start of the invasion, Ukraine controlled twenty-three regional capitals and special-status cities. Today, Russia still controls none. This represents a complete collapse of Russia’s territorial ambitions.
Russia has suffered over one million casualties, yet managed to capture less than 1% of Ukraine’s territory in the last one thousand days. It remains bogged down in places such as Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, cities it was expected to seize long ago. At this pace, Russia will exhaust its manpower before it achieves any meaningful gains. Is Russia prepared to lose another million soldiers merely to take Donbas?
This war is unsustainable for Russia. While it can continue to recruit and fight, it cannot do so indefinitely.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is not engaged in a hopeless struggle. Nor is this a case of a small Soviet-style army facing a giant. Ukraine’s armed forces are now Europe’s most capable, experienced, and innovative military. It fields approximately as many soldiers as Russia in this war. While Russia is capable of recruiting more men each month, it suffers significantly higher losses as the attacking side.
Ukraine’s tactics, innovation, and accountability are on a different level. Ukraine is a different kind of force, more Westernized, more flexible, and more intelligent in its approach. The ongoing corps reform is one example of this transformation. Progress is slower than hoped, but it’s underway and should gradually help address some of Ukraine’s challenges, including training and manpower.
Ukraine’s strategy of slow withdrawal and attrition is deliberate. It is designed to make Russia pay dearly for every meter gained. This is not a sign of weakness. It is a methodical approach to defeating a larger but less agile adversary.
While Ukraine fights, the geopolitical landscape has been shifting. For eight months, the Trump administration effectively shielded Putin. No new sanctions were introduced, and no fresh military aid was approved. While small purchases of American weapons continued under previously approved funding, and European financing provided limited support, no new aid packages were passed. Existing sanctions were quietly diluted. This was not diplomacy. It was strategic alignment with Russia, pursued at the expense of Europe and democratic values.
The Trump administration has failed to negotiate peace. Will it now push for Ukrainian victory?
There are signs of change. Ukraine’s deep strike campaign inside Russia is beginning to shift public understanding of the broader strategic picture. For the first time in this war, strikes behind enemy lines seem to matter more than movements on the ground, thanks to Ukraine’s ability to trade territory for time and prevent major breakthroughs. Trump has acknowledged that Russia is failing and that Ukraine can win. He has imposed sanctions on Russia for the first time and is now urging Moscow to end the war. His words may lack substance, but they reflect a rhetorical shift. European leaders are also speaking with greater clarity and resolve. The tone is changing. The poisoned narrative is starting to fracture.
Europe must recognize that Russia is likely to lose this war, in the sense that it will not achieve its strategic goals. It is time to stop waiting for Trump and Putin, two individuals who do not have Europe’s best interests in mind, to determine the continent’s fate. Europe must cease behaving like a geopolitical subordinate and begin matching Ukraine’s courage with stronger military support and firmer pressure on Russia.
The time to act is now, and we should start by finally seizing Russia’s frozen assets. The war is far from over, and it is up to us in Europe to decide how long we allow Russia to keep fighting.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.