A Nobel Prize-winning NGO released a report on Tuesday estimating the economic cost to Ukraine of land-mine clearing and the hurdles they pose to rebuilding the country. It also outlined the disastrous humanitarian fallout – all because of a military strategy, the group argues, that is long outdated.
In February, it was estimated that about 174,000 square kilometers (67,550 square miles) of Ukrainian land was contaminated with land mines. That is a larger area than the US state of Florida, and larger than that of Greece. It amounts to about to nearly a third of all Ukrainian territory.
The Economy Ministry estimated earlier this year that demining operations may take more than to complete and cost up to $35 billion.
The report published by Humanity & Inclusion (H&I), which supports landmine victims and advocates for the banning of anti-personnel mines, pegged that number at about $29.8 billion.
It said that landmine contamination is costing Ukraine an estimated $11.2 billion annually, or about 5.6 percent of its pre-war GDP.
As noted by TVP World, millions of landmines have been planted by Russian forces in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion of 2022, making it one of the most heavily mine-contaminated countries in the world, alongside Gaza, Sudan, Syria, and Myanmar, the UN-run Mine Action Service said in April.
As a heavily agricultural country, Ukraine’s economy is particularly hard-hit by land mines. About 17 percent of the nation’s GDP is tied to farming, and farmers are especially vulnerable to land mine accidents.
H&I, which shared the 1997 Nobel Peace Prize for its work on landmines, stressed that, aside from economic damages, the humanitarian costs could be dire. An estimated 80 percent of all land-mine victims are civilians.
“The use of landmines in Ukraine has already left a legacy of human suffering, hampered post-conflict reconstruction, and endangered future generations,” said Duncan Ball, a H&I representative responsible for Ukraine.
“The country is facing a decades-long demining effort with an estimated cost of $29.8 billion for mine clearance.”
According to the H&I report, agricultural and food exports have fallen in Ukraine by $4.3 billion annually since the war started, and a large chunk of this reduction can be linked to landmine-related disruptions.
‘I would not go back’
The landmine crisis could also prolong both the return of millions of Ukrainian refugees, who fear they cannot safely return to their homes given the presence of explosives in residential areas.
“Even in the framework of a ceasefire, if I could go back to my home and found a job in my hometown in Luhansk region, I would not go back.” said Vadym Loktionov, a project manager at H&I is quoted as saying in the NGO’s report.
“It is not safe, and it will keep being dangerous for a long time. If one day I have children, I don’t want to live in fear for their lives,” he added.
The report noted that in December 2024, less than half of Ukrainian refugees wanted to return home, compared to 75 percent in November 2022.
‘No mine field can stop a technologically capable force’
The NGO’s report also laid out the case that a mine-field strategy does far more harm to civilians than it successfully deters the advance of troops. Land-mines are almost obsolete in modern warfare, the group contends.
“Modern militaries now employ Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities, including satellite imagery, UAVs (drones), and ground-based sensors that allow them to detect troop concentrations and monitor enemy activity in real-time. These technologies can identify minefields as they are being emplaced, meaning most mine-laying operations are no longer covert or tactically unpredictable,” explained Gary Toombs, Humanity & Inclusion Explosive Ordnance Disposal Expert.
“Additionally, military breaching equipment, such as mine ploughs, rollers, explosive line charges and armored engineering vehicles, can clear “safe” lanes through minefields quickly and under fire. In recent conflicts, such as in Ukraine, we’ve seen combined arms operations effectively overcome entrenched defensive positions, including minefields, using coordinated firepower and engineering assets,” he added.
“Anti-personnel mines, once seen as a persistent threat, now offer only temporary disruption not decisive delay. In short, no minefield can stop a determined and technologically capable force. Landmines have become a tactical inconvenience at best, not a barrier.”