WASHINGTON, DC – Former senior US diplomats and military leaders said on Tuesday the Trump administration’s accelerated push for a Ukraine settlement has entered its most consequential phase yet, warning that Moscow remains unwilling to compromise and that only firm Western resolve can prevent Russia from dictating the terms of peace.
Speaking at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center event on the latest diplomacy surrounding the war and the revised US–Russia peace proposal, the officials described negotiations that have shifted rapidly following high-level meetings in Geneva and ongoing talks in Abu Dhabi.
Veteran US Ambassador Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state, said the diplomatic track was “in far better shape than it was when the US had pushed through its 28-point plan without adequate consultation with allies or the Ukrainians,” adding that the process was “much better shape after Geneva.”
But he cautioned that reports of Ukrainian agreement to a revised draft plan were premature. “I would put that agreement in brackets now, because I think some of the biggest issues have yet to be resolved,” he said.
Fried said any settlement rested on “two big things”: territory and security. On territory, he said, “President Trump is right. The settlement should be based on the current line of contact.”
On security guarantees, he warned that they “need a lot of work,” adding that the Ukrainians had “wisely positioned themselves in a supporting role” behind Trump’s initiative.
“The Russians are going to have to decide whether they are going to be a spoiler and possibly incur Trump’s wrath, or whether they will actually try to settle. I think the former, but we shall see,” he said.
He described the original 28-point US draft as “internally inconsistent,” containing Russian demands that “Ukraine would be foolish to accept, and we would be foolish to accept.” It was “weak on security” and “mischievous” regarding Russia’s frozen assets, and had proposed territorial concessions that were “a bad idea.”
Fried said he believed Russian sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev had leaked the document “for mischievous purposes.” “We lost control of the process — bad show — but I think we regained it over the weekend in Geneva,” he added.
‘No one has shown Putin a hard belly’
Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warned that Western ambiguity continued to embolden Moscow.
“This is exactly what the Kremlin and Mr. Putin want us talking about… Mr. Putin desperately needs to be seen as winning this war,” he said.
But the frontline, he added, was far from a Russian triumph. “To describe either side as winning this war right now is foolishness. Basically, both sides are losing.”
Breedlove invoked Lenin to describe the Kremlin’s strategy. “If his belly is soft, continue to push harder and deeper… So far in this war, no one has shown Mr. Putin a hard belly,” he said. Instead, “the West is dancing around Europe, waiting for America to do something, America waiting for Europe to do something… and in the aggregate, we are doing very little.”
“What will stop Mr. Putin is real capability and the credibility that we will use it,” he said, but warned that US delivery on its promises has been slow or inconsistent.
He said Russia repeatedly used diplomatic encounters to mask aggression. “Every time America goes to Russia, we are rebuffed. And then after we are rebuffed, Russia slams into Ukraine,” he said.
Breedlove doubted that Russia could be forced out of Donbas under current political constraints, but said Western air power could make Crimea “absolutely uninhabitable for Russia,” “drop the bridge,” and help “make Crimea Ukraine again.”
‘Putin doesn’t want peace, he wants Ukraine’
Former US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who served during Trump’s first term, said he gave the president “full credit” for seeking to end the conflict.
“The [US ]President’s commitment is to end this war,” he said, but stressed that Moscow’s goals remained unchanged. “Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire… Putin doesn’t want peace. Putin wants Ukraine.”
He dismissed the idea that postwar Russia would offer business opportunities for US companies. “There is virtually no company of any significance… who would leap at any opportunities in Russia today, tomorrow, or probably for a generation,” he said. “There is no reset here.”
Biegun said supporting Ukraine did not undermine US capacity to deter China. “This is not a binary choice… The best China policy… is to ensure Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.”
On security, Biegun argued the US must think beyond formal guarantees. “We need a much more holistic view of a strategy for security in Ukraine,” he said, ranging from Western air defense and maritime security in the Black Sea to economic reconstruction, EU membership, and deep political reforms in Kyiv.
“The 600,000-plus battle-hardened Ukrainian troops… should be the central pillar of security in Ukraine,” he said.
He added that Americans’ instinctive opposition to aggression would continue to anchor US policy. “Americans hate bullies… Putin is the archetype of the type of character that the American people loathe.”
Security guarantees and need for credibility
Fried said credible security guarantees for Ukraine were achievable. “If you add to all of that Western air power over Ukraine, Western air defense, I think the Ukrainians could make a go of it,” he said.
But weakening Ukraine’s defense ability would be “foolish.”
Breedlove agreed that any treaty must be far stronger than Budapest or Minsk. “Whatever is next… is going to have to be much more concrete,” he said. Russia, he said, must see US, NATO and EU resolve clearly and publicly. “Mr. Putin, we are here. You’re not going to win this war. Period.”
Fried predicted Russia would reject a reasonable deal. “Lavrov has been snarky in public already,” he said. At that stage, “President Trump has to use his considerable skills and lean on the Russians.”
He said the US could intensify sanctions enforcement, coordinate long-term European weapons funding for Kyiv, and press Europe to resolve its plan for Russian frozen assets. Trump, he said, “could vindicate his record, prove his critics wrong… get a big win on the board,” but only by “staring down Putin in a serious way.”
Breedlove said many believed Putin “is not going to stop. He’s going to have to be stopped.” Stopping him did not require attacking Russia, but confronting him with a “hard wall… a hard belly in the form of Western forces on the ground.”
Biegun said diplomacy would not separate Moscow from Beijing. “Putin can get the peace he wants… and at the same time sustain his relationship with China,” he said.
He argued that postwar Russia policy must include deterrence and containment. “Deterrence cannot fail again… It’s going to take a generation or generations,” he said.
Breedlove added that US credibility globally is now being judged through Ukraine. “Our policy in Taiwan, in North Korea and Iran is being written every day in Ukraine,” he said.
‘This is about driving an end to the war’
Fried urged Washington not to become distracted by internal disputes over the leaked 28-point draft. “The Russians want us to chase each other… I’m completely uninterested in that,” he said. The Trump administration, he argued, is now “in quite a bit better shape.”
“This is about driving an end to the war… that leaves Ukraine sovereign and secure,” Fried said. “We have an opportunity to have a major success and deal Putin a major blow.”
Biegun said Trump remains motivated to achieve a historic outcome. “The President wants an achievement here that is worthy of the favorable judgment of history,” he said, though whether such an outcome is achievable “remains to be seen.”
Ambassador John Herbst, moderating, said he believed the administration could reach the right place, though Moscow would resist.
Biegun responded that the US system would continue to push toward a sound policy. “I have just an inherent confidence in America’s democracy and the American people… Americans hate bullies,” he said.
Fried added that “the issues and lessons of the 20th century are back with us,” and that “it’s in our interest that Ukraine succeed.”
Breedlove closed by calling for renewed direct US support. “I applaud this peace effort… and I think a big part of the future of that succeeding is for America to re-engage in the support of Ukraine,” he said.