Thirty-one years ago today – Dec. 5, 1994 – the leaders of the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia gathered in Budapest for what was meant to be a triumph of diplomacy.
Ukraine had just inherited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal from the collapsed Soviet Union – nearly 2,000 nuclear weapons. It agreed to give up every single one in exchange for security assurances from the very powers now deciding its fate.
Today’s meetings in Miami should alarm anyone paying attention.
The Budapest Memorandum promised to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and borders. No use of force. No economic coercion. A new model for the post-Cold War world, they said.
It was an illusion – an empty pledge.
Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and parts of Ukraine’s Donbas region. It launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Now, on this grim anniversary, the US appears ready to betray Ukraine again – this time by pressuring Kyiv into a peace deal that rewards Russian aggression, abandons Ukrainian sovereignty, and violates its territorial integrity.
Today’s meetings in Miami should alarm anyone paying attention. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – Trump’s envoys, real estate operators rather than diplomats – are meeting with Ukrainian officials soon after visiting Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
Consider that. It is not just blatant cronyism. Two individuals – the US president’s business partners, one of them a son-in-law – are shuttling between the Kremlin and Ukrainian leaders, brokering a deal over Ukraine’s and Europe’s heads that appeases Russia. The optics are terrible; the substance is worse.
Consistent reports suggest the current US administration wants to force Ukraine toward territorial concessions and “neutrality” – diplomatic language for surrendering land to the invader and abandoning NATO or any meaningful security guarantees.
This is Budapest all over again. Except now everyone knows how it ends.
In 1994, Ukraine faced an impossible choice: newly independent, economically devastated, with no experience managing nuclear weapons, and under intense international pressure to disarm. The US offered assurances that seemed reasonable. Ukraine’s leaders wanted to join the community of nations and build a peaceful future. So, they accepted the deal. They trusted Washington, believing the international order meant something.
They should not have. Not because they were naïve, but because the West, in which they trusted and aligned themselves, failed them. When Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum in 2014, the response was sanctions and stern words. The US, under former President Barack Obama, backed away and left it to the German and French leaders of the time to handle “damage containment.”
When Russia invaded in 2022, the West finally began providing meaningful military aid – but always too little, too late, and always with restrictions that prevented Ukraine from defending itself properly. Just enough to hold out, not enough to win.
Now, the current US administration appears ready to give Ukraine just enough “peace” to ensure its eventual subjugation by Russia, but also through continued, if changed, dependence on the United States and the West’s goodwill and economic support.
A peace that leaves Ukraine dismembered and defenseless isn't peace – it's a temporary ceasefire that guarantees future war.
Consider the double standard. Trump gives Israel unconditional support – no questions asked, no price tag attached. But for Ukraine, he demands that Europe pay the bill. He treats Ukrainian survival as a burden, a transaction, something to be negotiated away, a situation to profit from. One ally gets blank checks; the other gets lectured about costs.
Here is what is really at stake. If Russia keeps territory seized by force, if Ukraine is pressured into a deal that leaves it vulnerable to future aggression, the message to the world is unmistakable: International law means nothing. Borders can be changed by violence. American security commitments are worthless.
Fortunately, not everyone has abandoned principle. The UK, France, and most European countries refuse to repeat Budapest. They understand the stakes and recognize that selling out Ukraine means selling out European security.
Every nation that relies on American assurances – Poland, the Baltics, Taiwan, South Korea – will draw the obvious conclusion. Every dictator with territorial ambitions will see a green light.
European security collapses. Ukraine falls, Russia does not stop. Belarus is absorbed. Next, who? Moldova, Georgia, the Baltics? NATO faces an existential crisis as member states wonder whether Article 5 means anything more than the Budapest Memorandum did. China is emboldened on Taiwan. Iran accelerates its nuclear program, having watched Ukraine’s disarmament lead directly to invasion.
In short, America’s word becomes worthless, and Europe is left floundering.
The argument for forcing Ukraine into a bad deal rests largely on war-weariness. The desire to “end the killing,” as Trump keeps reiterating. Understandable sentiments. But they ignore a basic truth: You can’t build lasting peace by rewarding aggression. A peace that leaves Ukraine dismembered and defenseless isn’t peace – it’s a temporary ceasefire that guarantees future war.
Ukraine is not asking America to fight its war. It is asking for weapons and support to defend its own survival. It is asking that the principles the US claims to uphold – sovereignty, self-determination, and the rule of law – truly matter. It is asking that Washington not repeat the catastrophic mistakes made after signing the Budapest Memorandum.
On this anniversary, we recall that the West betrayed Ukraine with empty assurances after it achieved independence and established itself as a democratic European state. It cannot do so again. The cost will be measured not only in Ukrainian lives and territory, but also in the collapse of the international order and the emboldening of every tyrant who believes might makes right.
If for Americans the phrase “Remember the Alamo” holds special meaning, today, for Ukrainians, “Remember the Budapest Agreement” is just as stark a reminder and should resonate throughout the free world.
History is watching, and Ukraine continues to suffer, bleed, and resist.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.