ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 5, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5.
  • Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not encircled Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad as of December 5 as Russian forces continue efforts to complete the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket.
  • Russian forces are attempting to completely deny Ukrainian tactical- and operational-level logistics to the Pokrovsk direction using drones to achieve effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI).
  • Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian oil and defense industrial base (DIB) infrastructure.
  • Five unidentified drones flew over a major French nuclear submarine base on the evening of December 4 amid increasing reports of drones flying over European military infrastructure.
  • Russian forces committed a war crime in the Siversk direction.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk.

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