- Russia is continuing its concerted deep strike campaign against Ukrainian energy critical national infrastructure (CNI), almost certainly seeking to cause a humanitarian crisis amongst Ukraine’s civilian population over winter.
- In November 2025, Russia launched approximately 5,400 one way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukrainian CNI targets, as well as more than 90 missiles from Long Range Aviation aircraft. Russia has launched over 5,000 OWA UAS in each of the past three months, with the objective of saturating Ukraine’s air defence.
- Daily reliance on large numbers of cheap, mass-produced UAS, both armed and decoy, is indicative of Russia’s attritional approach to the conflict, and affords Ukraine minimal respite. Launch rates are regularly limited by adverse weather conditions and geopolitical considerations; however, lulls are often followed by peaks as perceived conditions improve.