A recent Kremlin denial that a daring Ukrainian sea drone attack hitting a missile submarine tied up at the main base of Russia’s Black Fleet (BSF) caused little harm is almost certainly false. In fact, the warship probably suffered severe damage to its watertight hull, rudder and propellers, a Kyiv Post review of open source evidence available on Tuesday found.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Monday claimed its operators had successfully piloted a Sea Baby-sub remote-controlled kamikaze attack boat into Russia’s Novorossiysk harbor on the eastern Black Sea shore to hit and severely damage a Varshavyanka-class (NATO designation: Kilo class) tied up there.
As evidence, the SBU released a video the agency said it had recovered from hacked Russian security camera footage showing the final seconds of the drone’s approach and a massive explosion in the proximity a submarine tied up at a Novorossiysk wharf. The blast caused severe damage and the submarine, if not made a write-off, would require months and possibly years of repair work, official Ukrainian sources said.
The specs of the Sea Baby-sub drone are a Ukrainian military secret. According to open sources the motor boat-sized weapon can submerge fully, allowing it to bypass surface barriers like buoys or floating booms, and most likely can carry a warhead with half-ton of explosives. The Monday strike was the first confirmed use of that type of system, by Ukraine or any other country, in combat.
Russia’s Defense Ministry on Monday evening denied practically all Ukrainian claims of mission success in the Novorossiysk raid.
In a rare, immediate statement on a developing combat situation, the Defense Ministry said: “Information being spread by special services of Ukraine about the purported ‘destruction’ of one of Russia’s submarines in Novorossiysk military-naval port is not consistent with reality. The enemy attempt to conduct sabotage using a robot device did not achieve its goals. Not a single warship or submarine of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) based in Novorossiysk Bay suffered damage, and (all) are conducting normal operations.”
Ukrainian mainstream media and milbloggers on Tuesday almost without exception confirmed the SBU account that the submarine was hit and damaged, dismissing the Kremlin declaration as propaganda. Geolocation confirmed the video of the submarine and the explosion took place in Novorossiysk harbor.
The independent US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a late Monday analysis confirmed the SBU had used an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) to hit a Russian submarine, for the first time in naval history using that type of attack weapon. The ISW report said the attack caused multiple explosions and “critical damage to the submarine,” and cited satellite imagery from Planet Labs and NASA as evidence supporting that conclusion.
Daylight civilian satellite imagery of Novorossiysk port recorded on Dec. 15, one day prior to the Ukrainian attack, and on Dec. 16, hours afterwards, showed a single Varshavyanka-class (NATO designation: Kilo) submarine tied up at a military wharf in the same location shown in the SBU video. In a second overhead image, subsequent to the strike, the Kilo-class submarine appears to be lower in the water than in the first image, with parts of its deck awash.
Damage, including scorch marks and torn concrete consistent with a substantial explosion, is visible on the wharf adjacent to the sub in the post-strike satellite image. Support or patrol boats not visible in the first photograph appeared to be patrolling or searching in the harbor near the submarine, Kyiv Post imagery review found.
Ukrainian military information platforms confirmed the fact of the attack and damage done to the Russian submarine, but some expressed caution regarding Ukrainian government claims the boat had been totally destroyed. Comment by the pro-Ukrainian OSINT research group Malcontent News said of the attack and the video recorded of it:
“The appearance of mud and dirt (blown into the air) on the video showing the explosion at the port of the Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk indicates the use of a very large explosive charge. The seabed was significantly damaged, and this goes beyond the obvious fact that the water in the submarine docks is shallow. The underwater drone had a very large warhead. According to our assessment, we can say with a moderate or high degree of confidence that the submarine of the ‘Kilo’ class was damaged due to the proximity of the explosion and the amount of displaced water and seabed. It is impossible to estimate the extent of damage.”
The video published by the SBU shows a powerful explosion centered just aft of the stern of one of two submarines tied up at military piers in the Novorossiysk port. The detonation taking place slightly underwater in close proximity to the boat’s rudder and propellers rocks the submarine at its moorings and throws debris past the boat’s sail near the bow. The video shows neither a drone nor a wake.
The first satellite photograph likewise shows two submarines, one located exactly in the same place as the sub shown targeted in the video. The third satellite photograph shows a single submarine in the same place as the sub targeted in the video.
BSF commanders following past Ukrainian port strikes often have evacuated warships to avoid a follow-up attack. It not absolutely clear from the Dec. 16 imagery why only one submarine – the one that had been tied up where the Ukrainian drone detonated – was still visible in the Novorossiysk port. Damage to below-water portions of the submarine’s aft hull seemed to be the most probable reason, but it was not possible for Kyiv Post to fully confirm that.
In a comment typical of local military observers, Ukrainian officer Kyryll Sazonov said the SBU strike had “put the submarine out of action” and estimated the cost of the boat’s replacement at $500 million. The warship and others of its type regularly launch Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian homes and businesses, he said.
In a Tuesday analysis, the military information platform Krymsky Viter, associated with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), praised the SBU’s hack of security cameras in Novorossiysk to help its operators overwatch and carry out the attack remotely, rather than having to risk human agents on shore in Russia.
“This allowed for high-quality panoramic footage of the piers and the moment of impact. This was an integrated operation, in which naval drones carried out the strike component and cyber assets provided reconnaissance, visual monitoring, and recording of the results,” the analysis said in part. “It is precisely this combination – asymmetrical, technological, and flexible – that is increasingly undermining Russian confidence in ‘safe zones,’ even in the deep rear [far from the fighting line].”
On Sept. 13, 2023 Ukraine’s military launched cruise missiles later identified as British or French anti-ship missiles to hit and severely damage the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don while that boat was tied up at a wharf in the Crimean port Sevastopol. The strike caused severe damage including an automobile-sized hole in the hull. Independent sources led by the UK Ministry of Defence described the damage as “catastrophic.”
By mid-2024 Russian repair teams had refloated the sub. On Aug. 3, 2024 Ukraine hit the sub again with missiles, sinking it on the spot. Russia’s Defense Ministry at the time claimed the damage could be repaired, but since then the sub’s hulk has not moved from the bottom of Sevastopol naval base harbor.
Russian naval commanders in October 2023 shifted most BSF warships to the smaller and more distant port Novorossiysk, on the Russian mainland, in a bid to protect fleet vessels from future Ukrainian attacks by basing its warships out of the range of NATO missiles. Ukrainian sea drones with a range in excess of 2,000 kilometers have attacked Novorossiysk and other targets on Russia’s Black Sea coast repeatedly since then.