More than 10 years ago, Russia began its aggression against Ukraine. First, Crimea was occupied, then a significant part of the Donbas. The international community reacted as best it could.
Initially, there was deep concern. Then Europe and the US decided that if Putin were threatened with devastating consequences for his country’s economy, which could result from an array of sanctions against Russia, he might refrain from further invading Ukraine. These sanctions ranged from personal sanctions against Kremlin representatives and people close to him to financial sanctions against banks, Russian exports, etc.
So, why are sanctions needed? To keep an individual, organization, or even a country from violating certain norms and force that individual/organization/country to return to compliance with those norms.
We should note right away that since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale aggression, the European Union has “resolutely” implemented 19 packages of sanctions against Russia. The largest sanctions packages and their impact were aimed at restricting Russia’s military-industrial complex and its energy revenues.
As the events of the last four years have shown, the economic consequences do not particularly bother the Kremlin’s dictator, who is ready to ruin his country for the sake of a mythical “rising up off its knees.”
So when I thought about a hypothetical 2025 sanctions ranking that would list those most painful to Russia’s economy, I suddenly realized that it was not worth even talking about any ranking. Rather, it was better to assess which sanctions were actually effective.
At the top of the chart
If we look at the effectiveness of various types of sanctions, at what immediately caused damage and became noticeable and tangible for Russians, then the best sanctioning tool of 2025 was Ukraine’s “drone sanctions” against the Russian oil and gas sector.
According to the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Gen. Vasyl Malyuk, Ukraine carried out about 160 successful strikes on Russian oil industry facilities in 2025 alone. Overall, the strikes led to a 20% reduction in Russia’s oil refining capacity, according to realistic estimates. This has already caused fuel shortages in 57 regions of Russia, increasing prices and forcing the Kremlin to temporarily ban gasoline exports.
A logical continuation of the “drone sanctions” were strikes on elements of Russia’s export logistics. Throughout this year, especially in the last month, Ukraine has been actively striking the tankers of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, which numbers approximately 1,300 vessels. Currently, there are four confirmed cases of successful strikes by Ukrainian naval drones on these ships in the last month alone. The culmination of these Ukrainian oil sanctions was a drone strike on Russian oil facilities in the Caspian Sea.
In recent months, thanks to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, Russia has been bleeding not only blood on the battlefield, but also oil. In November of this year, oil and gas revenues fell by 35% compared to last year, while in May the decline was 34%. And, as it turns out, this is what really matters to the Kremlin.
Russia has been bleeding not only blood on the battlefield, but also oil. As it turns out, this is what really matters to the Kremlin.
Let’s calculate how much Russia has lost from various sanctions over the past three years. We have already written that, according to British government estimates, sanctions have deprived Russia of more than $450 billion in potential revenue over three years.
Over the past two months, Ukraine has shifted its focus to combined attacks: simultaneously targeting refineries (to create a gasoline shortage) and oil storage facilities (to disrupt the army’s logistics chains).
At Kyiv Post, we provide detailed coverage of Ukraine’s “drone sanctions” against Russia. In particular, we wrote about how US intelligence provided Ukraine with the information necessary for the strikes. And the most important conclusion from our experts is very simple. The campaign by the Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) under the command of the now legendary Robert “Madyar” Brovdi and other units of the Defense Forces created a domino effect: the destruction of Russian oil and gas facilities led to systemic distortions throughout the Russian economy.
Russia has not only lost a significant part of its technological capabilities to process oil, but it will also be unable to quickly restore them, as these are Western technologies, access to which is complicated by other sanctions.
Price shocks in the domestic market are causing losses for independent gas stations, forcing the Kremlin to reduce gasoline exports and increase supplies of crude oil, the price of which is falling on the world market.
On top of everything else, this is increasing tension within the country, with a significant part of the Russian Federation already suffering from a shortage of fuel, especially diesel. This is compounded by the decline in tax revenues from Rosneft and Lukoil, which are paying less tax to the budget, forcing the government to cut spending on social programs, including healthcare and education.
And that’s not all. Analysts point out that the cumulative effect of these attacks will become critical for Russia in 2026. If Ukraine maintains the pace of strikes with long-range drones, Russia may face the need to introduce a card system for fuel in certain regions or significantly reduce supplies to the civilian sector in favor of the military.
So, what do we have in the end? Throughout 2025, we are all witnessing two major processes: Ukraine is increasing the pace and scale of its strikes on Russia, and the US is stepping up pressure on Ukraine to make peace.
It is painfully clear that the current White House has been behaving like a puppet of the Kremlin throughout the peace talks. As such, the Ukrainian military may very well be the only means of imposing and enforcing sanctions that actually made the puppetmaster in the Kremlin nervous.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.