ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28, 2025

War in Ukraine - Latest update, key takeaways and map from the Institute for the Study of War on December 28, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • US and Ukrainian delegations met in Florida on December 28 to discuss the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan and other documents related to a potential peace settlement.
  • Recent Kremlin statements are at odds with several of the positions that Trump presented as the basis for ending the war.  
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders continue to aggrandize tactical details to create the false impression that Ukrainian defenses across the frontline are on the verge of collapse.  
  • Putin and the commanders continue to falsely portray future Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast as a quick and easy endeavor.  
  • ISW has observed recent open-source evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in Rodynske and that Russian forces have operated within less than half of Myrnohrad.  
  • ISW has only observed open-source evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in roughly 55 percent of Hulyaipole.
  • Russia appears to be increasing the sophistication of its cognitive warfare effort that uses flag raisings to achieve informational impacts.
  • Putin’s meeting with military commanders platformed on-the-ground tactical commanders in an effort to lend credence to the Russian military command’s aggrandized claims.  
  • Putin and Russian military commanders continue to discuss the need to form “buffer zones” in areas of Ukraine outside of the four oblasts Russia illegally annexed in 2022.  
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

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