The world is locked in an unprecedented crisis, and the erosion of international law is only the tip of the colossal iceberg of transformation. The prolonged inability of the world’s leading nations to find a common, strong, and legitimate solution to stop Russia’s criminal aggression is a further ominous sign of the crisis we find ourselves in.
The unity of partners that existed at the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine is under serious political attack, and Ukraine’s moral advantage as the victim has been devalued. It may not be possible to fully restore the once-relied-upon solidarity of the democratic world against Russia in the coming years, as new lines of division emerge and democracy loses its leading position.
Ultimately, however, the outcome of the war will determine where ideals such as freedom, democracy, state sovereignty, human rights, justice, and humanity will be placed in the architecture of the future world. Will they form the foundation, or will they serve as old-fashioned decoration?
“We will win this war – not by force, but by the moral fortitude of our people and creativity, innovation in military affairs and diplomacy.”
Ukraine faces the daunting task of building the broadest possible coalition of true allies around itself, maintaining its circle of friends, and inventing creative new formats for partnerships. This cannot be done without internal unity, strength of spirit, a clear national goal, and motivation to fight, proving every day that we will not give up – neither on the front lines nor in the rear.
Ukrainians everywhere must stand together in their belief in their own future. We will win this war. We can win it – not by force, but by the moral fortitude of our people and creativity, innovation in military affairs and diplomacy.
We can win it by making the world fall in love with our culture and traditions, by showing class in entrepreneurship and invention, and by never forgetting our identity and our homeland, even in the far corners of the world.
Unfortunately, however, the phenomenal resilience of Ukrainians, which has formed the basis of international support, has been misrepresented as Ukraine’s lack of desire for peace.
This challenge should not be underestimated – it is not a game of words, but an attempt to conceptually change international relations between states.
“The world must take the real Russia into account and build a new, adequate common policy toward it as an aggressive, problematic empire.”
Naïve illusions of a quick solution
It is incredible how, on the global chessboard, attempts are being made to manipulate the roles of victim and aggressor – Russia being the initiator of the most unprecedented armed attack in Europe since World War II. Simplifying the historical conflict between an imperial, authoritarian, militarized, fascist, colonizing country and an independent democratic nation-state with a European choice has created a naïve illusion of a quick solution consisting of several dozen points written on a draft document. It is supposedly just a matter of pressure and price. It is shameful that this pressure is being exerted on Ukraine.
The ashes of these drafts must be scattered to open the way for real diplomacy in the search for true peace and its guarantees for Ukraine from strategic partners. And one of the first arguments against this delusion is Russia’s real willingness to go further in the coming years – to the Baltic states, to Poland, to the countries of Northern Europe.
What points will Russia then propose? Where will it draw new borders within NATO and demand placement of the Russian language, Russian schools, and Russian propaganda in certain countries of the EU?
There are no easy solutions and there will be none when it comes to Russia’s instincts to occupy prosperous territories.
The world must take the real Russia into account and build a new, adequate common policy toward it as an aggressive, problematic empire. One must not romanticize Russia’s “greatness” through the pages of Tolstoy’s novels and Bolshoi Theater performances, but see its essence through the lens of historical practices of genocide, colonization, corruption, war, and prisons, through the resurrected Russian ideology of fascism, restored nostalgia, and political assassinations.
All this has already been formalized in the relevant state security strategies and foreign, cultural, information, technological, and demographic policies of the Russian Federation. Read carefully, because in the hundreds of pages of appendices to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decrees, there are no steps toward peace – although there are many words about peace. “Russian world.”
[Note: “Russkiy Mir” can mean “Russian peace,” or “Russian world/universe,” or a purposeful, perhaps sinister, equivocation. – Ed.]
“Russia skillfully turns diplomacy into a tactical maneuver and the Kremlin’s strategic goal remains unchanged.”
Betrayal – built into Russia’s DNA
Russia trades on its favorite technique of fear, and the grand myth of an immeasurably great power with strength and influence. Russian mercenaries in Ukraine, committing war crimes, often say that they just want Ukrainians to “respect Russia.” This is what the Russian leadership wants too – to force the world to respect it. But there is no need to fear such a Russia. It does not exist.
Inside, you will see an institutionally weak state – an economy that produces 1.9% of global GDP, which it literally digs out of the ground. Don’t go on a tour of central Moscow, but take an interest in what is happening further away from the Kremlin. There you will find a vast country of degraded human capital, short life expectancy, a destroyed environment, ruined infrastructure, a neglected territory without roads, and internal contradictions at risk of exploding into political, ethnic, or religious conflict. Accept the collapse of this construct in the 21st century as realistic and desirable.
Without this new vision, confirmed by dozens of international indicators of economic development and the state of society, negotiating with the Russians is just playing into their hands.
Russia skillfully turns diplomacy into a tactical maneuver and the Kremlin’s strategic goal remains unchanged. Following Russia down this winding path could lead to a truce, a pause, a lull, through humiliation, but after that, betrayal and war will inevitably resume. This is how Russia works; it is in its DNA. The war in Ukraine since 2014 proves this with dozens of tragic examples – from Ilovaisk to the broken promises not to kill Ukrainians at Easter.
Without a profound rethinking of Russia and all its internal “secrets,” the flawed new “philosophy of partnership” will drag us into a pseudo-negotiation process, the result of which can be nothing other than “Munich-2,” when the sovereignty of a nation is openly turned into a bargaining chip.
Furthermore, any presumption of the aggressor’s “rightness” can only open Pandora’s box and spread the war to Europe.
Russia will continue to bluff, citing its geographical size as an argument for its strength, and will again seek a simple and profitable solution for itself through bargaining, pressure, and occupation. This will be a major strategic loss for the free world.
“We will prevail and defend our freedom and our values, for which thousands of Ukrainian heroes have died over centuries of struggle.”
A moral choice
Geopolitics today has become a fundamental choice between good and evil. This moral choice for the Western world will be reflected in its position on Ukraine. Some will have the courage to stand firmly on the side of good, while others will see this as an opportunity for bargaining or compromise.
A new axis of evil has already formed around the Russian dictatorship and offers a version of the world where the strong allow themselves everything, and the weak are doomed to be dependent on the will of the strong.
This is an attractive proposition for some. But in reality, such a world will not be safe for anyone, as it will marginalize democracies or force them to renounce their fundamental values for the sake of domination.
In autocracies, the state’s course and interests are determined by the will of one person. In democratic countries, strategic decisions are made by nations, generations, and citizens who have a voice and a decisive influence. Therefore, I believe that we will not be alone in this struggle. We will be surrounded by true allies.
We will prevail and defend our freedom and our values, for which thousands of Ukrainian heroes have died over centuries of struggle. And for our generation, it is a struggle for which our soldiers have been defending our territory on land, at sea, and in the air, for far longer than the last four years now.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.