WASHINGTON DC – The Kremlin is weaponizing a dubious “assassination attempt” on Vladimir Putin to systematically dismantle a fragile new Western-backed peace framework, according to a leading Russia expert.
As 2025 draws to a close, Moscow is signaling it has no intention of entertaining the latest 20-point peace plan – a proposal hammered out between Kyiv, Washington, and European capitals.
Instead, the Kremlin is using false reports of a Ukrainian “strike” on Putin’s Valdai residence as a convenient “alibi” to revert to the maximalist demands it issued at the war’s onset.
“There’s no evidence that Ukraine conducted any kind of strike targeting Putin’s residence in Valdai,” George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told Kyiv Post in an exclusive interview.
“It’s fairly telling the Kremlin spokesman even rejected the notion that Moscow should provide evidence. Kremlin officials are using the alleged Ukrainian strike in Novgorod Oblast to justify Russia’s continued insistence that both Ukraine and the West capitulate to Russia’s original demands from 2021 and 2022,” he added.
Return of the ‘ultimatum’
According to Barros, the phantom drone strike serves a specific geopolitical purpose: justifying Russia’s refusal to budge on its original 2021 and 2022 demands.
This shift was punctuated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who used a year-end interview with Russian state media outlet Russia Today to reiterate Moscow’s most extreme requirements for ending the conflict.
The “original” demands Lavrov reiterated include a requirement for neutrality, meaning Ukraine must abandon all aspirations for NATO or Western security blocs.
He also called for demilitarization, which would involve reductions in the Ukrainian military such that the country cannot defend itself.
Finally, the demand for denazification seeks the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet regime.
“Lavrov stated that Russia is ‘convinced’ that the ultimatums that Russia submitted to the United States and Europe in December 2021 can serve as a ‘starting point’ for peace talks,” Barros noted.
Collision course with diplomacy
This hardline stance puts Moscow in direct opposition to the 20-point peace plan released on December 23, which suggests freezing the war along current frontlines and capping the Ukrainian military at 800,000 personnel.
While the Western plan offers significant concessions, it stops far short of the total capitulation Lavrov is now demanding.
The Foreign Minister also insisted that the West must formally recognize Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Crimea – a non-starter for the Zelensky administration.
“It appears that Moscow is thus using this invented story of the Ukrainian attack against Valdai to justify Russia abandoning the peace proposal that Russia was never inclined to accept, not now at least, in any event,” Barros said.
Information war
The Valdai incident follows a pattern of “narrative traps” designed to shape Western expectations.
By portraying itself as the victim of a direct assassination attempt, the Kremlin is attempting to seize the moral high ground to reject compromise.
For the White House and European leaders, the message from the analyst is clear: the Kremlin isn’t looking for an exit ramp; it’s looking for a reason to keep the engines running.