Iran is currently facing its most severe domestic crisis in years. What began on Dec. 28 as a spontaneous strike at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, triggered by the collapse of the national currency, and has rapidly transformed into a nationwide anti-government uprising.
The central driver of the unrest is the dramatic collapse of the Iranian rial. Within a single week, the currency lost nearly 30 percent of its value against the US dollar, effectively erasing the savings of millions of ordinary citizens. With food prices rising hourly, both the middle class and low-income workers have been pushed to the brink, taking to the streets out of sheer economic desperation.
At Tehran’s Grand Bazaar – the historic heart of Iranian commerce, shops have shuttered en masse, as merchants refuse to trade in a currency that loses value by the hour. The paralysis of the bazaar is widely seen as a dangerous signal for the regime, given its historical role as a political and economic power center.
What makes this so-called “Winter of 2025” protest movement particularly threatening for the Ayatollahs is its demographic breadth. Unlike previous waves of unrest led primarily by students or urban youth, the current uprising has forged a rare alliance between the urban middle class, bazaar merchants, and the traditional working class.
From the religious stronghold of Mashhad to the industrial hubs of Isfahan, protest slogans have evolved rapidly - from demands such as “Where is our money?” to the openly defiant chant, “Death to the Dictator.” This shift reflects a transformation from economic grievance to a broader struggle for dignity and political change, resonating with societies worldwide that have confronted authoritarian rule.
Regime response and repression
The authorities have responded to the crisis through a combination of symbolic concessions and outright repression.
First, personnel changes: the resignation of the Central Bank governor appears to be an attempt to deflect public outrage onto a single official, rather than address systemic failure.
Second, forceful suppression: Basij paramilitary units and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been deployed in major cities. Reports of widespread internet shutdowns and hundreds of arrests are emerging from across the country.
Additionally, the regime declared Dec. 31 a nationwide holiday due to alleged severe weather conditions. However, meteorologists have not forecast any significant weather disruption, leading critics to conclude that the move was designed to reduce public gatherings – further evidence, they argue, that the authorities are acting out of panic rather than control.
The geopolitical stakes
The unfolding events are being closely monitored by the international community. The US administration has already warned Tehran that a violent crackdown will trigger additional sanctions. Analysts emphasize that this protest wave is fundamentally different from previous ones because it unites students, bazaar merchants, and industrial workers - a coalition that poses an existential threat to the regime.
For Ukraine, Israel, and the broader West, the stability of the Iranian regime is not merely a domestic matter. Tehran’s role as a key supplier of military hardware to aggressor states means that internal instability – particularly within the IRGC’s power structures – has direct and immediate implications for international security.
What comes next?
The coming days will be decisive. If the protests spread into strikes within Iran’s vital oil and gas sectors, the economy could grind to a near-total halt. Such a development would force the government to choose between meaningful concessions and an even more brutal escalation of repression.
Israel has publicly expressed support for the Iranian people, with the country’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that any regime change must come from within Iran itself and be carried out by the Iranian people.
Whether this moment marks the beginning of a prolonged revolutionary process or another violently suppressed uprising will depend on the regime’s next moves and on whether Iranians can sustain the unprecedented unity now visible on the streets.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.