In part I, I set out what it means to share a sense of optimism that is “well-founded” and based on factual data, along with the realities of the ongoing war that have the power to propel Ukraine to ultimate victory.
In part II, we turn attention to historical precedent and the ingredients of Ukraine’s strength as a nation, as well as how Ukraine is coordinating its own actions based on a clear understanding of the true position of its “allies.”
The power of a nation
Among the achievements of the Ukrainian Resistance and its war against a genocidal aggressor, we often cite the fact that Ukraine has earned, once and for all, its recognition as a nation. Ukraine is a nation that, whatever the outcome, will be greater, stronger, and more dignified than Russia for all eternity.
Russia will forever remain, in history, a miserable country marked by mass crime, servility, infamy, and indignity. Ukraine will live on, no matter what happens, while Russia will sink into oblivion as a country whose existence can never be justified. In any case, within a few decades, it will disappear as a great country, not only morally and spiritually, but also physically.
On Dec. 26, 2025, we celebrated the 34th anniversary of the demise of the Soviet Union. There will be other December 26ths that will mark the end of the Russian pseudo-empire as it exists today. It is not certain that Russia will be defeated militarily – even if our duty is indeed to defeat it militarily in Ukraine – but it will ultimately have worked methodically toward its own fall.
Admittedly, this historic emergence of the Ukrainian nation as an “indispensable” and even irreplaceable nation has been perceived abroad thanks to the incredible actions of the Ukrainian Resistance. Those in Europe and elsewhere who were unaware of it have now discovered it. Domestically, too, beyond the political discord inherent in any democracy, Ukrainians have further strengthened their sense of belonging to a single nation, regardless of their region of origin, religion, or language.
But, other events had already contributed to this: the referendum on Ukraine’s independence on Dec. 1, 1991, bore witness to this, as did the 2004 Orange Revolution and then the 2014 Revolution of Dignity in Maidan, Kyiv. But it would be wrong to think that this national sentiment did not already exist: even beyond the Holodomor, the Soviet yoke had already made Ukrainians understand that national independence meant freedom.
I have previously paid tribute to Alla Horska, who was assassinated by the People’s Commissariat for Internal Affairs (NKVD) in 1970 and who championed this cause. There were many other figures who took part in this struggle at the risk of their lives.
The West is gradually discovering that Ukraine has a history; that there is a Ukrainian history independent of that of Russia and the Soviet Union, but also of other peoples who have passed through this land of passage that is Ukraine. But Ukraine’s strength lies precisely in not excluding any of them, but in bringing them together.
What makes Ukraine united is precisely its diversity and plurality. Ukraine’s national struggle is a struggle for a political nation, not an ethnic nation closed in on itself. Russia’s struggle is exclusive, ethnic, and based on hatred and contempt for the other. Ukraine’s struggle is universal in scope.
It is also for this reason that when it is said that Ukraine is on the front line in the defense of Europe, this is certainly true militarily and strategically. Ukraine is now the shield, and young Ukrainians are fighting and often dying for Europeans. They are waging the war that has been waged on us and that we have not had the intelligence and courage to wage ourselves. But Ukraine is also the spearhead in the defense of our principles and values.
When Ukrainians, since Maidan, assert that their struggle is driven by a certain idea of Europe that many among the member peoples of the EU no longer even perceive, this also and above all means that they are more European than many citizens of Europe. Ukraine is a European nation in its own right, through its history, its conception of its people, what it stands for, and certainly through its courage – but also through its perfect symmetry in opposing the enemy that seeks to destroy it.
Of course, some will argue that Ukraine does not yet “tick all the boxes,” that the effort to meet standards – the acquis – will still take a long time, that corruption remains too high, despite the immense progress made over the last ten years, and that there are still differences in the “European consciousness” of Ukrainians. That may be true, but it does not negate the European identity of the Ukrainian nation and people.
And who are we, as Europeans and members of the EU, to lecture them? What have we actually done to oppose the radical enemy that Ukraine is fighting? Did we have the courage, even before the war, of the Maidan fighters? Is our European consciousness so strong when certain European nations have already given, and could still give in the future, power and, previously, votes to political parties, then to governments, that are hostile to the very principles of Europe and, in some cases, cozy with the Russian enemy? The far right in Ukraine accounts for about 1% of the vote. This must always be remembered.
Of course, being a nation does not necessarily and logically imply victory. Even exemplary nations can fall. There is no law of history that says good always triumphs over darkness. Many Western European countries have too easily internalized this belief since the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. Historians know that there is no determinism that prescribes the victory of dignity, law, and decency. There are many perfectly credible counterfactual historical scenarios in which Nazi Germany could have won – especially if Hitler had not attacked his Soviet ally. A Soviet-Nazi condominium, as seemed to be taking shape between 1939 and 1941, could have existed. Many of us would not be here to discuss it.
So Ukraine’s victory is not a foregone conclusion and will be due first and foremost to the intelligence and courage of its fighters and the entire Ukrainian population. But the fact that there is a self-aware Ukrainian nation, fighting as a nation unlike a so-called Russian nation whose totalitarian power prevents even national existence, gives it unparalleled strength.
Even if, unfortunately, due to the cowardice of certain Western countries, part of Ukrainian territory were to remain under Russian control for some time, the Ukrainian nation would not give up its struggle and would eventually reclaim it. A free nation has resources that a totalitarian state will never have.
Ukraine and its “friends”
I will not dwell now on the latest episodes of pseudo-negotiations, in which we saw US President Donald Trump and his advisors persisting in a mixture of grotesqueness and infamy, siding with the criminal Russian state and demonstrating their total indifference to the victims as well as their contempt for international law.
As Ukrainian-born activist and writer Inna Shevchenko recently wrote: “Trump doesn’t care how this war ends. If it ends with Ukraine erased and Russia victorious, he’s fine with it. He’ll just point at the ruins and say: look, it’s going to be amazing.” There is no more accurate and precise definition of amorality.
I often imagine what President Zelensky’s thoughts might be – and I know firsthand those of many Ukrainian friends. They know they can never trust the US again – and that was already true under the 46th President Joe Biden. They know that Trump is going even further, since he has switched sides to the enemy.
For some in the current US administration, this is part of a carefully thought-out ideological project: allying with Russia is not the result of chance, but signals a complete ideological alignment. For some MAGA “thinkers,” Russia has become a means of fighting against freedom, law, and dignity – all things they hate more than anything else.
I am also not sure that Ukrainians consider certain European “allies” to be true friends, despite President Zelensky’s polite statements to that effect. They also know that these nations will not go all the way in their support, that they do not have a complete understanding, despite their proclamations, of the nature of the Russian threat, and that they are not ultimately prepared to fight, because that is the ultimate truth that would prove their alliance, to prevent Ukraine from being amputated of part of its territory.
Ukrainians also know what the repeated and almost automatically softened statements about a “just and lasting peace” mean when European “allies” utter them – that is, without any real thought behind them. Perhaps some states and governments are exceptions to this reality, but this is not the case for most. Admittedly, these states do not have the same hostility towards Ukraine as Trump, and they are more aware of the mortal danger that Moscow poses to Europe. But a real alliance cannot be measured in terms of a few hundred million or even a few billion dollars’ worth of weapons delivered, let alone commitments for the future. A real alliance is measured in the present.
Let’s be straightforward: the fact that Ukraine was granted a €90 billion loan by the last European Council on Dec. 18 and 19, 2025, is reassuring news. But the fact that the EU was unable to agree on seizing frozen Russian assets, even if they are blocked indefinitely, speaks volumes about the concern of some to still spare Russia. Or to put it another way, they are not planning for Moscow’s total defeat.
Ukraine knows this, from the foot soldier in a unit on the front line who is desperately short of shells or protection against enemy drones, to the artilleryman who has not been given long-range missiles, to the ordinary civilian who knows that the Europeans have not closed Ukrainian skies, even though they could easily have done so, and the Ukrainian president and ministers.
So Ukraine knows that, at the end of the day, it is alone. It does not proclaim this; it refrains from saying it, like an intimate pain that one does not even share with one’s loved ones; but it knows it. It knows where it comes from, measures its implications, and assesses its consequences. It has been perfectly aware of this since almost the beginning of the war – since 2014, since 2022, and still today. But it is organizing itself accordingly.
Ukraine would certainly like more weapons and does not hold back, rightly so, from asking for them; but it does not rely on them for its own victory. It has already devised plans for that. And it is perhaps because, ultimately, it has given itself the means to decide everything that it will have acquired the ability to win.
I wish my subscribers and readers a wonderful and fulfilling year, full of joy, discoveries, and achievements.
Today, my thoughts are particularly with the Ukrainian fighters who are giving their lives for freedom, and the Ukrainian people who support them.
Beyond this special tribute, I extend my wishes for victory to all those, in all corners of the world, who dare to stand up against tyrannical powers. Their fight is our fight.
Happy New Year 2026!
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.