ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed that Russian forces conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8 to 9, likely as part of the Kremlin’s reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western support for Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin likely targeted the westernmost part of Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile to deter Europe and the United States from providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
  • Russian forces conducted a long-range combined drone and missile strike on the night of January 8 to 9 that resulted in massive power outages, particularly in Kyiv Oblast.
  • The US Navy seized another oil tanker with links to Russia that was attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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