ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO.
  • The Kremlin continues to forward the false narrative that Ukraine’s defenses are on the verge of collapse, but data on Russian gains since the start of the full-scale invasion demonstrate otherwise.
  • Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to offer demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains to forward the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian military victory is inevitable.
  • The Russian military command remains committed to its false claims that Russian forces have seized Kupyansk, despite ample visual evidence and Ukrainian and Russian reporting to the contrary.
  • Gerasimov’s January 15 claims are part of a demonstrated Kremlin pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield. These Kremlin efforts aim to spread the false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and to convince Ukraine and the West that Ukraine should accept Russia’s demands now out of fear of future Russian offensives.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Slovyansk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.

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