Most Ukrainians do not believe that current negotiations with Russia will lead to a lasting peace, according to a new survey published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
The poll found that 69% of respondents said they do not expect ongoing talks with Moscow to result in sustainable peace in Ukraine. Only 26% said they believe negotiations could succeed, while 5% were undecided.
Skepticism runs even deeper when Ukrainians consider a potential “freeze” of the war. According to the survey, 57% believe that even if fighting were halted along current front lines and Ukraine received security guarantees, Russia would eventually attack again.
Another 26% said the likelihood of renewed aggression is “50-50,” reflecting widespread fears of a repeat invasion. Just 11% said they do not expect Russia to strike again.
Respondents who doubted the effectiveness of negotiations were asked to explain their views in open-ended answers. More than half, or 52%, cited Russia’s lack of genuine interest in peace, saying Moscow intends to continue the war as long as it has the resources to do so.
“Russia’s goal is the destruction of Ukraine — they will not stop,” one respondent said. Others pointed to Russia’s history of broken agreements, arguing that any deal would be temporary at best.
“Putin doesn’t need that. Until Russia collapses, there will be war. Even if they reach an agreement, peace will be temporary.”
“As long as the Russians have resources, they will keep moving forward.”
“Because agreements with Russia, as the classic said, are not worth the paper they are written on.”
“Because verbal arguments do not compel Russia to act.”
The majority of Ukrainians – 54% – consider it categorically unacceptable to transfer the entire Donbas region to Russian control in exchange for security guarantees. At the same time, 39% are ready to make such a concession (although most of them admit that this is a difficult condition). Another 5% were unable to decide on their opinion.
There is no clear consensus among Ukrainians regarding the referendum on the peace agreement. On the one hand, 55% support holding a referendum, which is slightly more than half. On the other hand, only slightly fewer either oppose it (32%) or have doubts (14%).
The survey results show that, first of all, Ukrainians remain steadfast and optimistic in the war despite all the difficulties. The vast majority believe that Ukraine has the strength to continue its effective resistance (and only a minority consider Ukrainian resistance to be hopeless), says Anton Hrushetsky, executive director of KIIS.
The survey was conducted from Jan. 9 to Jan. 14, 2026, using telephone interviews with a random sample of 601 adults across government-controlled regions of Ukraine. The margin of error did not exceed 5.3 percentage points, the institute said, noting that wartime conditions may introduce additional systemic bias.