WASHINGTON, DC – A senior Ukrainian delegation is expected to arrive in Miami on Saturday carrying a thin folder and an even heavier mandate, with enormous expectations: narrow the growing gulf between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump before global leaders convene in Davos next week.
The trio of Ukrainian top negotiators – Rustem Umerov, Kyrylo Budanov, and David Arakhamia – are set to hunker down with Trump’s inner circle, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, in what diplomats view as a final diplomatic push before pressure intensifies on the world stage.
At the center of the talks are two interlocking agreements Ukraine insists must rise or fall together: binding security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression, and an ambitious $800 billion reconstruction and prosperity framework blending loans, grants, and private investment.
Zelensky has made clear he hopes both documents can be signed on the margins of the World Economic Forum. “From our side, in principle, I believe that we are finished,” he said this week, signaling Kyiv considers the texts complete.
Washington’s tone, however, is markedly cooler.
A race against Davos – and Trump
While US officials are publicly circumspect about the Miami meetings, Trump’s team is privately signaling impatience.
Trump himself said this week he believes Vladimir Putin is ready for peace, casting Zelensky – not Moscow – as the impediment, despite Russia’s unchanged military posture.
One senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity, framed the moment bluntly:
“This is leverage politics. Trump wants momentum before Davos, and that means pushing Kyiv to bend – even if the Russians haven’t moved an inch,” the official told Kyiv Post. “Ukraine’s line is simple: no security, no deal.”
Ukrainian officials maintain both agreements were essentially finalized weeks ago. Experts argue the US position has since shifted.
Rubio’s conspicuous absence
Adding to Ukraine-watchers’ unease is who will not be in the room.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is skipping today’s talks, despite Trump’s earlier announcement that Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Kushner, and Witkoff would spearhead expanded US–Ukraine working groups and direct engagement with Moscow.
That absence has not gone unnoticed among Ukraine-watchers. “It suggests the real decisions are being kept very close to Trump,” said the senior Western official. “That makes allies nervous – and Ukrainians doubly so.”
While Witkoff and Kushner have emerged as the administration’s primary channels to both Kyiv and Moscow, Rubio has played a key role in reassuring skeptical European capitals.
In the meantime, US officials, in response to Kyiv Post questions on Friday, didn’t completely rule out Rubio’s potential “catch-up” with the Ukrainian delegation “if conditions allow,” pointing to the fact that the Secretary will spend the weekend in Miami.
Rubio will join President Trump at Mar-a-Lago Saturday afternoon during a meeting with another delegation from the other side of the Atlantic – Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Peace plans – and pressure – in flux
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor offered a broader assessment Friday, noting a proliferation of competing peace proposals, including a Ukrainian-American plan both sides say is “90%” agreed.
The best-case scenario, Taylor said, is alignment among the US, Ukraine, and Europe – followed by Trump applying real pressure on Putin to force a ceasefire.
The worst case is simpler – and darker.
“Putin continues to think he can win,” Taylor warned. “And the fight goes on.”
Taylor also rejected any recognition of Russian-held territory, stressing that Moscow’s occupation of roughly 19% of Ukraine is illegal under international law.
He cautioned against pressuring Kyiv into territorial concessions, including proposals involving a 40-kilometer (25-mile) pullback to create a so-called “Free Economic Zone.”
“This is a decision for the Ukrainians to make,” Taylor told an Atlantic Council event. “No one should legitimize Russia’s claim to occupied land.”
What comes next
For Ukraine, the clock is ticking. Kyiv’s Ambassador to the US, Olga Stefanishyna, took to social media to frame the mission as a “refinement” of the security and prosperity documents.
But behind the scenes, the pressure is mounting for Kyiv to concede on the Donbas to secure the $800 billion “Prosperity” carrot.
As Taylor noted, the Russians currently show zero interest in a genuine agreement.
If Umerov and Budanov can’t convince the Trump team to apply the “stick” to Putin while they negotiate the “carrot” in Miami, the Davos summit may end not with a historic signing, but with a widening rift.
For Zelensky, the Miami mission is about more than signatures. It is a test of whether Trump’s America is prepared to underwrite Ukraine’s long-term security – or whether Kyiv is being nudged toward concessions in the name of speed.
As one European diplomat put it privately: “Everyone wants a deal. The question is who’s being asked to pay for it.”
In the world of Trumpian diplomacy, though, the only thing more dangerous than a bad deal is no deal at all – and right now, Kyiv is praying Washington knows the difference.