European and American leaders emerged from talks last week signaling significant progress on Ukraine’s future security guarantees if a peace deal is reached, including long-term military support, US-led ceasefire monitoring, and the rebuilding of Ukraine’s military to deter future Russian attacks.
But even if these steps are enough to bring President Zelensky to yes, he is not the last word on what Ukraine will accept in a peace deal. The Ukrainian people are. And it would behoove Western negotiators to consider what Ukrainians are prepared to live with.
Ukrainians want peace more than anyone, but after nearly four years of great sacrifice for freedom, they want a lasting peace.
Nobody wants to condemn 3.5 million Ukrainians living under Russian occupation to a life where rape is a method of punishment, priests and pastors are routinely tortured, and children can be taken from parents at any time only to have Putin regroup and attack again in 2027.
December 2025 polling of Ukrainians commissioned by the Ukraine Freedom Project shows that 58% of Ukrainians seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible. But they won’t take just any offer.
Ukrainians remain confident in their military. Seventy-five percent of Ukrainians think they can win with military support and strengthened sanctions from Europe and the United States.
As Western resolve wavers, Ukraine has taken the lead in enforcing Russian oil sanctions. Ukrainian drones are striking Russian tankers as far away as the Mediterranean Sea. Drone strikes have taken as much as 37% of Russia’s refining capacity offline, increasing Putin’s economic pain.
US headlines erupt every time the Russians capture a Ukrainian village, but Russia loses some 1,100 soldiers per day taking these small pieces of land, totaling less than the area of Palm Beach County in 2025. Now, Russia is losing land as well. Less reported is Ukraine retaking Kupyansk, a key railhead in Donetsk.
Ceding Ukrainian territory not earned by Russia in battle is wildly unpopular. Eighty-nine percent of Ukrainians are against giving Russia all of the contested regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. Giving up only Donetsk and Luhansk loses 75% of Ukrainians.
The Trump Administration’s 28-point plan cuts the 900,000 person Ukrainian military to 600,000 troops , while the 20-point plan limits it to 800,000. Regardless, 80% of Ukrainians are against inviting Putin back by making their military smaller.
What will Ukrainians agree to?
Previous polls show that Ukrainians want a ceasefire prior to any peace agreement. Today, almost half of Ukrainians are willing to roll the dice and sign a peace deal with Putin without a ceasefire.
Some 60% of Ukrainians will support freezing the front lines as long as Russian sovereignty over the occupied territories is not recognized.
Ukrainian public opinion may evolve as peace plan details emerge. But some opinions are solid. For instance, Ukrainians don’t expect peace to last.
Seventy percent of Ukrainians believe Putin will violate any peace agreement when it is in his interest to do so. Putin signed some 25 ceasefires with Ukraine between 2014 and 2021. The longest lasted about four months. Some were broken within hours.
Despite continued talk of Putin liberating the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, nobody speaking any language wants Putin as their leader.
Our polling shows only 0.8% of Ukrainians, about 250,000 people, have a strong desire to live under Russian rule.
Perhaps peace would be better served by discussing how to get this small group of folks apartments in Moscow rather than subjugating millions of Ukrainians to a lifetime of terror.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.